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Posted on 10/15/2003 8:15:53 AM PDT by BenLurkin
Al-Qaida or its allies may try to mount a "spectacular" attack on U.S. forces in Iraq until they are ready to attempt another big attack on American soil, a think tank warned Wednesday. Washington was apparently "overconfident" in saying it had al-Qaida on the run with its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the war in Iraq probably boosted support for Al-Qaida among Muslims, the International Institute of Strategic Studies said in releasing its annual "Military Balance," an authoritative guide to military forces and conflicts around the world.
It said the war hurt al-Qaida by denying it a potential source of weapons of mass destruction and discouraging states such as Syria and Iran from supporting it. But the war had also boosted sympathy and support for the group in the Muslim world, it added.
"On the minus side, war in Iraq has probably inflamed radical passions among Muslims and thus increased al-Qaida's recruiting power and morale and, at least marginally, its operational capability," it said.
Al-Qaida is still determined to penetrate the United States and other Western nations, although it may lack the ability to mount an attack like those on Sept. 11, 2001. It may turn to a major attack on U.S. forces in Iraq comparable to the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon that killed 241 people, it said.
Radicals "could regard a spectacular attack on U.S. personnel in Iraq ... as a feasible substitute until it is ready to attempt another mass casualty attack on American soil," the report said.
A string of attacks linked to al-Qaida show that it remains a potent and formidable threat, but it has still suffered considerable damage that has curtailed its scope and operations since 2001, the report said.
"U.S. assertions made in the wake of the Iraq war that al-Qaida was 'on the run' and that the global counterterrorism coalition had 'turned the corner' in the 'war on terror' appeared overconfident," it said.
The group intends to develop weapons of mass destruction, and some of its operatives are ready to use weapons, such as the poison, ricin, and anti-aircraft missiles against civilian planes, it said.
Asked if the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq means the U.S.-led invasion was not justified, institute director John Chipman said it was too early to conclude they would not be discovered. But, he said, a full picture may never emerge because of the chaos left by the war.
"I don't think one will ever know the truth, because whatever one may or may not find in the next six months will not be proof of what may or may not have been there. ... It will be proof of what people can find now. And I think therefore there will always be a degree of uncertainty as to what Iraq may have retained."
He said there was still evidence Iraq had retained weapons of mass production and the search for them could provide evidence of the regime's ambitions.
"What may emerge is a better understanding of the range of Iraq's ambitions, which, if left unchecked, may have allowed Iraq's capacities to mature to a level where their threat to the region really was important," he said.
The review expressed concern over the threat posed by about 120 large, poorly guarded ammunition dumps left in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's downfall, warning that terrorists may find them a source of weapons such as anti-aircraft missiles. The dumps have not been destroyed because of the search for evidence of weapons of mass destruction.
"The coalition was unprepared for the scale of the problem, and had no way of securing the quantity of ammunition and weapons storage sites," it said.
Assessing North Korea's nuclear ambitions, the review said Washington did not want a confrontation with Pyongyang as long as the communist regime avoids provocative steps such as atomic tests.
It also expressed concern about Iran's suspected efforts to build atomic weapons. Failure to find a solution could lead to other options, including a deal to compensate Iran for giving up its plans or even possible military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, it said.
Global spending on defense in 2002 rose by about 7 percent and is expected to jump by a similar figure this year, although much of it is by the United States, the review said.
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Say again? What, the raghead losers are going to hit our guys with an **assembly line** or something? (chortle!)
Same 'Think Tank" also stated:
Think Tank: Sun may come up in the East tomorrow.
These people get money and headlines for stating the OBVIOUS?!
For me: Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits.
It doesn't take a think tank to come up with that one....
And yet there are still those around here that insist our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq did nothing to help stop terrorism in this country.
What we know for certain is that jihadis in general are incredibly inept. The attacks in Iraq, having inflicted mimimal, though tragic, loss of life, display weakness more than anything else.
If we stay the course we have nothing to fear from these bozos. Their defeat is certain.
Isn't that the definition of a "consultant?"
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