How many Dems will cross the aisle?

Many of those on your list will either retire, Stenholm,Hall, Skelton, or be targets in 2004.

Looks like the combo of Pomeroy-Dorgan would be a great place to spend $ and Recruit great conservative candidates. Perhaps the Split with the party in power approach would work well in ND and Ark?

The issue at hand is that many older Democrats will retire in 2004 leaving vulnerable open seats because of disillusionment at their prospects to retake the House that year.

You both hit it on the head. I think the average year has around 20-25 retirees per party. The last three to four congressional elections have been basically the same story... Gebhardt has talked dozens of Democrats into putting off retirement for "one more term" because "this is the year" that they were going to take the House back. They just couldn't afford too many retirements because it would jepordize their chances of regaining the majority.

Now with Bush actually on the ticket in 2004 and showing that his tux actually does have coattails... how many will believe they have a shot at the majority in 2004?

How many House Democrats aren't willing to hold on "just one more time"? And for every one that switches or anounces retirement, retaking the House becomes more difficult and encourages more to bail. This thing could snowball if they don't get a handle on it quickly.

And who is out there in their party with the clout to reign in this horse? Clinton? Gore? Daschle?

The issue at hand is that many older Democrats will retire in 2004 leaving vulnerable open seats because of disillusionment at their prospects to retake the House that year.

Very good point. It seems the last few elections there have been very few Dems that have retired. I imagine last Tuesday's butt-whoopin' caused more than a few Dems to look longingly at retirement, a private practice, or a cushy seat on some corporate board.

I have talked to him several times in the past and have read many articles by him published in the local newspapers.

I believe that he firmly believes that the Demo Party is the best party.

I also know that he strongly believes that cutting income taxes will only increase the budget deficit.

I do not agree with him on the part about taxes. I think and know that he is counting on the "Yellow Dog" and "Blue Dog" Demos to keep getting him re-elected as long as he is willing to keep running.

I think the 17th District old guard "Yellow Dog" and "Blue Dog" Demo voters are being buried at the rate of at least 25 per day. Possibly more than that.

Time is not on his side. I will be very surprised if he actually decides to change parties. I think that he is too hard headed to change to the Repub party

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