Is Gingrey (R) gaining in the 11th? [GA-11]

InsiderAdvantage ^ | 10/30/02 | N/A

[BlackRazor]

Is Gingrey gaining in the 11th?

Democrat Roger Kahn has the advantages of running in a congressional district drawn for Democrats (the 11th), having a private fortune to spend on the race, and being able to assume most district African Americans will vote for him, allowing him to fashion conservative media appeals to eat into Republican Phil Gingrey’s assumed voter base.

Nevertheless, Kahn's lead in a poll taken nearly a month ago was only 41 percent to 40 percent, and there is at least circumstantial evidence that Gingrey, a state senator from Marietta, is gaining momentum. He is playing the media wisely, with a combination of Kahn-is-a-rich-carpetbagger and Gingrey-is-a-trustworthy-obstetrician ads on radio and TV. Meanwhile, Kahn's savvy campaign of earlier days is now giving the appearance of being rudderless. Has he tried to be too many things to too many voters, while Gingrey has stayed on his pro-Bush message?

Maybe. But don’t look for Kahn to present a sitting target to Gingrey in the last week of the race. The Bartow County Democrat is too smart and too experienced a campaigner not to counter with something clever, and soon. He is doubtless keeping his cool and basing late strategy on his own internal polls, which show him leading Gingrey 44 to 40 percent, according to the Kahn staff. Gingrey already has his high-profile event set for the weekend. He will entertain Republican U.S. House speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois on Friday in Dalton.

Meanwhile, the Kahn camp will have its candidate playing roll-up-the-sleeves today. Kahn plans to team up with Democratic Congressman Martin Frost of Texas at Lockheed-Martin in Marietta this afternoon to discuss funding for the F-22 fighter jet and other issues. Afterwards, it’s off to Eagle View Park in West Point, where the future of West Point Lake will be the topic of discussion.

The key to this race? Nothing new here: voter turnout -- African-American turnout for Kahn, and greater Marietta turnout for Gingrey. Our best guess is that Kahn is still the favorite, but we aren’t betting the mortgage.

[BlackRazor]

Kahn is only up by 4 in his own internal polls? We might want to keep an eye on this one.

[Torie]

I always tend to know whose leading by whether or not the nrcc releases its internal polls. It hasn't mentioned any for the 11th CD.

[KQQL]

GA CD 3 and 11 will likely go to Rats , but I think GA CD 12 is a GOP win.

[KQQL]

@

[ambrose]

is this the district that Bob Barr should have been running in?

[KQQL]

yes

[Torie]

Barr would have been blown out in this district. One thing I don't understand about this district is why so many white voters voted for Gore. I have never obtained an explanation for it, and thus really don't understand this district. But is has a distinct Dem lean, which means a divisive GOP partisan who is controversial, was dead meat.