Posted on 10/20/2002 8:34:04 AM PDT by BlackRazor
POLL FINDS ROSS LEADING IN 4TH DISTRICT
By Rob Moritz/ARKANSAS NEWS BUREAU
LITTLE ROCK -- Potential voters in the 4th District favor the title "congressman' over "former congressman," a new independent poll shows.
Congressman Mike Ross leads former Congressman Jay Dickey by 11 points in a poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and Stephens Media Group.
The poll of 401 registered voters in the 4th District likely to vote in the Nov. 5 general election, shows Ross, a Democrat, with 51 percent and Dickey, a Republican, with 40 percent. Nine percent said they were undecided.
Also, the poll shows Ross with a favorable rating of 60 percent to 53 percent for Dickey. Ross' unfavorable rating is at 19 percent compared to Dickey's 29 percent.
The poll was conducted Oct. 14-16 by Opinion Research Associates Inc. of Little Rock and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
"I'm honored and humbled by the support the people who sent me to Washington, D.C., have given me," Ross said Friday. "But, a lot can happen between now and Nov. 5 and the poll that matters is that one on Election Day."
Dickey said he was encouraged by the numbers.
"With the margin of error I'm one point behind," he said.
"I think this points to a change in direction by the voters," he said, noting that polls by other news organizations within the last month have shown Ross with a 14-point lead.
The pollster, Ernie Oakleaf of Opinion Research, agreed that Dickey had stronger poll support than many expected.
"Dickey's actually running better than I expected," he said. "It seems the conventional wisdom was that Dickey wasn't likely to pose much of a challenge to Ross."
Oakleaf said two factors were largely responsible for Ross' 11-point lead: his support in the black community and support among older voters.
Of the black voters polled, 69 percent said they'd vote for Ross, while just 17 percent preferred Dickey. Ross also had a 78 percent favorable rating among black voters, while Dickey had just 40 percent. Ross had just a 3 percent unfavorable among black voters, compared to 36 percent for Dickey.
During the campaign, Ross has spoken of the need of seniors to have a prescription drug benefit, raising the minimum wage, improving education and protecting Social Security.
The prescription drug benefit in Medicare and Social Security are issues that resonate with older voters, Oakleaf said.
The poll shows Ross leads 63 percent to 30 percent among voters 65 and older. He also holds a 51 percent to 42 percent edge among voters 55-64. Among retirees, Ross has more support with 65 percent to Dickey's 29 percent.
The youngest voters also prefer Ross. He leads among voters in the 18-35 age group, 52 percent to 37 percent.
Dickey leads in the 35-44 year-old bracket, 49 percent to 40 percent, and among those in the 45-54 age group, 49 percent to 39 percent.
Among female voters, Ross polled 56 percent to Dickey's 32 percent.
Measuring the candidates' support by political philosophy, Dickey leads with conservatives, 48 percent to 45 percent, while Ross is the pick of moderates, 58 percent to Dickey's 33 percent. Ross also is ahead with liberals, 44 percent to 33 percent.
In a measure of party support, Dickey is favored by 80 percent of Republicans, compared to 16 percent for Ross. Among Democrats, Ross has the support of 76 percent to 16 for Dickey.
Independents say they would vote for Dickey, 56 percent, over Ross, 23 percent. Twenty-one percent say they were undecided.
Among white collar workers, Dickey gets the edge with 50 percent to Ross' 42 percent. Dickey also has a small margin with blue collar workers, who support him 44 percent to 42 percent for Ross. Retired voters support Ross 65 percent to 29 percent.
The poll shows Dickey is more popular than Ross with voters whose annual incomes are above $75,000, 62 percent to 36 percent.
Low earners -- those making less than $25,000 annually -- favor Ross over Dickey, 66 percent to 23 percent.
Dickey held the seat from 1993 to 2001. Ross was a state senator from 1991 to 2001. Democrats targeted the 4th District two years ago.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Yeah, some of those breakdown numbers were real eye-openers (especially among independents!). Gore won this district by a slim 49-48 margin, so in theory, it should be competitive. However, Arkansas is one of those places where on the local level they still vote heavily Democratic. Republicans hold only 38 out of 135 seats in the state House and Senate. And that's their highwater mark since Reconstruction.
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