Mark Silva, Orlando Sentinel
Posted on 10/13/2002 1:50:50 PM PDT by floriduh voter
I don't regularly watch CNN, but I was surfing at the moment that Mark Silva's name was announced regarding this article. His name rung a bell with me so I stayed there to hear what the man had to say about our Governor's race.
I take exception to MARGARET CARLSON'S characterization that President Bush has been spending lots of time in Florida. I haven't seen him, have you? The POTUS has been all over the USA and I believe he's just arriving in Florida. Carlson must have heard that from Carville over at Crossfire.
Pick out your favorite parts. FV
Mark Silva, Orlando Sentinel
Former First Lady Barbara Bush, Gov. Jeb Bush, X-41, First Lady Laura Bush and #43.
They're together - wouldn't be prudent at this juncture. LOL
I think this race is at the point where even if 100% of the undecideds went for McBride, he would still lose.
The key words are in this report are when Silva said
SILVA: /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
And when he (McBride) does go negative,
The key words are which ne must. The only time a candidate MUSTgo negative is when his opponent is over 50%. Ply when a candidate MUST reduce his opponents vote below 50% to win is it mandatory that he go negative. Positive spots draw the undecideds to a candidate they don't take away from the other side.
It is like this. If Bush is over 50 percent the only way for McBride to win is to get Bush below 50 percent. Some of the Bush support must be driven away from voting for Bush. The usual result of effective negative campaigns is the people that are the object of negative spots are effected by them to the extent they don't vote at all. They typically tell the pollsters they are undecided... but they don't vote on election day in that race. Issue ads will not keep voters away from the polls or stop them for voting for a candidate.
If you study what Rowe and Company helped Forrester do to the Torch you will see an almost perfect implementation of negative campaigning. They drove the normal democratic support away from the Torch. The polls were 45 to 32 and even 45 to 29. What was happening was the 21 or 22 percent of the normal democratic vote was not going to vote for anyone in the senate race in in New Jersey. That meant that Forrester was going to win 60 to 40 because about 40% of the normally democratic voters were not going to vote for a candidate in the senate race.
Negative campaigns have a history of failing where the object of the negative campaign is not a louse. Jeb is not a louse. So the thought behind McBride is to lose while making it as close as possible without going negative.
McBride is setting himself up to run for governor in 4 years. He knows that 2002 is over. If he were still trying for this year he would be leaking some sort of trumped up scandal on Jeb.
The fact that he is going to stay clean means that he is planning to run in 2006.
Well, Mark, you're half right (which isn't bad for a reporter). No, it's not the AFL-CIO, it's the FEA, the Florida branch of the NEA, which is wholly owned by the democrap party, but it's not the teachers! Most of Florida's teachers don't agree with the extreme leftist politics of the union, even though their dues support it.
The union put a million and a half of their own money into his TV ads during the summertime.
... in violation of campaign finance laws! This was "soft money", supposed to be used only for issues, not to promote candidates. The Florida Republican Party is challenging this in the courts.
Thanks for the post, FV!
How many people read the last paragraph of news articles? Jeb's campaign is smartly linking Bill McB to Bill Clinton, and not a moment too soon.
Speaking of Charlie Crist, Buddy Dyer dem for AG is in trouble over some legislation he tried to pass for Georgia-Pacific; this in the sptimes.com. They are hammering the dems this election cycle. Good reporters - usually very left wing but not this time around. Very curious.
Mafree, two friends of Ken are on Fox News Channel - it's 9:04 am est.
Jeb said this? Alright! The only way the far left Dems. win is to parade them as moderates. The presstitutes are shameless.
Good post, FV, and thank you for the sacrifice of watching CNN.
I changed their posters at the forum's name to the Orlando Satan Alls.
I'm so glad that Jeb is linking trial lawyer McBride to trial lawyer (disbarred) Clinton. LIARS STICK TOGETHER AND ALL THAT. I am looking forward to the radio debate tomorrow.
There will be a thread so that people not able to listen at 11:00 am tomorrow can read it later before the RNC releases it's talking points re: the debate tomorrow...We'll do our best before the real talking points come out. Of course JEB BUSH WILL WIN TOMORROW'S DEBATE TOO.
GOVERNOR BUSH said he wasn't surprised to see Clinton helping his opponent: "They're of the same ilk." Of his brother, he cheerfully added, "We're of the same ilk."
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