 |
|
|
I will match those donations up to a total of $500 Please let me know the amount you donate, thanks.
Take this opportunity to DOUBLE your donation ;-) |
FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
|
|
|
|
Posted on 10/10/2002 5:59:02 AM PDT by BlackRazor
In backstretch, U.S. House race tightens
Democrat Karen Thurman battles for her District 5 seat in one of the most competitive and closely watched U.S. races.
By JEFFREY S. SOLOCHEK, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published October 10, 2002
The race for Florida's 5th Congressional District has become too close to call, according to election trackers at two nonpartisan Washington, D.C., publications.
Cook Political Report has changed its outlook from "leans Democratic" to "tossup" in the campaign, which pits incumbent Democrat Karen Thurman against Republican state Sen. Ginny Brown-Waite and independent candidates Jack Gargan and Brian Moore.
Roll Call, which gave Thurman a slight edge in its last election preview in May, this week placed her among its top 10 incumbents "on thin ice."
The reassessments come as the election shapes up to be one of the nation's most competitive in the battle to control the House of Representatives.
Democrats want to protect Thurman, of Dunnellon, as they seek to whittle down the Republican majority and win the six seats they need to take control. The GOP touts Brown-Waite, of Brooksville, as its best candidate in a decade to wrest the seat away.
Christopher Deering, chairman of the George Washington University political science department, said such punditry can be wrong as often as it is right. It's pretty easy to spot the hot House races, though, he added, because more than 95 percent of incumbents are safe.
The handicapping has its value in identifying the races to watch, Deering said. "But I don't think there's a huge mystery to that."
Amy Walter, House editor for Cook Political Report, agreed that few incumbents are in trouble. Only four sets of sitting House members are running against each other because of redistricting, she said, and a similarly small number of others face tough challengers.
That's what makes Thurman's situation interesting, she said.
Thurman had the upper hand early, while Brown-Waite fended off a primary attack from more conservative Don Gessner, Walter said. If Gessner damaged Brown-Waite, or if she spent all her money responding, the general election might look much different, Walter said.
But the primary ended "with a whimper, rather than a bang," she said, and Brown-Waite emerged as a strong challenger with real commitment behind her candidacy. House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois and Majority Whip Tom DeLay of Texas recently appeared at Brown-Waite fundraisers, and there's talk that even higher-ranking Republicans are on the way.
CNN has been sniffing around the area, too, doing advance work for a possible feature on Brown-Waite as a fresh face on the national political scene.
Brown-Waite's campaign finally has generated the "buzz" it needed, Walter said.
Redistricting is a key reason why District 5, which includes all of Hernando and Citrus counties and portions of Pasco County, is in play, Roll Call reported. Thurman lost much of her Democratic base as the Legislature added to the district more heavily Republican precincts where she is relatively unknown, the paper noted.
The presence of a "top-tier" opponent in Brown-Waite, second-in-command of the Republican-dominated state Senate, cemented the race as an uphill climb for the incumbent, it reported.
State Republicans sought to wreak havoc on Thurman, who as a state senator used redistricting in 1992 to carve herself a seat, and they appear to have succeeded, Roll Call observed.
Neither organization discounted Thurman.
Roll Call noted that national Democrats gave the incumbent a coveted spot to make the party's response to the president's weekly radio address. House Minority Whip Nancy Pelosi of California also visited the district on Thurman's behalf, it reported.
Thurman has the money to go out and make her case, Walter added, and the only poll released so far in the race -- one conducted by Republicans -- showed Thurman with a slight lead, despite having so much of her district removed.
"It's not that voters don't like her," Walter said. "It's that they don't know her."
She called Florida's District 5 "an absolute race to pay attention to."
Brown-Waite said she was gratified to hear the national analysts reaffirm what she has heard on the campaign trail.
"We are winning the ground war," Brown-Waite said. "We are getting the message out about Karen's votes. . . . I think the district welcomes someone who has positive ideas and who is going to get something done."
The revised ranking did not startle Thurman campaign spokesman Steve Tankel, either.
"I don't think it's surprising that this is a close race, given that Ms. Brown-Waite helped design the district and is going to be taking a lot of money from prescription companies and HMOs to run negative ads," Tankel said.
"The real story is how many people in the old district are pulling for Karen and how many new ones to the district are impressed with her record" on Social Security, prescription drug reform and veterans benefits, he said.
|
|
|
|
I will match those donations up to a total of $500 Please let me know the amount you donate, thanks.
Take this opportunity to DOUBLE your donation ;-) |
FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
