Published on: 2002-10-06
ELECTION 2002
Poll: Hayes rising to top
By Andrew Barksdale
Staff writer
A poll taken by Democrats shows Republican Rep. Robin Hayes leading the 8th U.S. House District race by 12 percentage points.
The survey of 501 likely voters said that 48 percent say they would vote for Hayes. Another 36 percent said they planned to vote for Democrat Chris Kouri. The rest were undecided.
Despite Hayes' double-digit lead in the poll, Democrats found reason to be encouraged.
Kim Rubey, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which paid for the survey, said Hayes' failure to get at least 50 percent is good news for Kouri.
''It shows that he is quite vulnerable, and that when Kouri's name recognition increases he will be a formidable challenger,'' she said.
Cooper & Associates of Alexandria, Va., a leading pollster for Democratic candidates, conducted the survey Sept. 20-22. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
Hayes disagrees with the assertion that the poll results are good news for Kouri. He said a Democratic-controlled legislature redrew the district's boundaries last year to make it easier for a Democrat to capture the seat.
''With a district I've got, anybody in my party would be vulnerable,'' Hayes said.
About 52 percent of the district's registered voters are Democratic. Only 31 percent are Republican. That split has changed little since the last general election, but the district now has more than 100,000 voters in Mecklenburg County not likely to vote for a Republican, according to observers.
Both parties believe the 8th District, which stretches from Fayetteville to Charlotte, is winnable in a battle for control of the House. They say the district is the most competitive congressional race in North Carolina.
Kouri, a 32-year-old lawyer from Charlotte, won the Sept. 10 primary in what some observers called an upset over Billy Richardson, a Democrat from Fayetteville. Kouri, who had never run for office before, won eight of 10 counties in a campaign that focused on grass-roots stumping.
Kouri said he will focus the final weeks of the campaign on doing what got him this far - traveling throughout the district and talking about issues that matter the most to people.
''That's what I've been doing, and that's what the message continues to be,'' Kouri said. ''That's what motivated me to get in the race.''
Hayes, a 57-year-old textile mill owner from Concord, was first elected in 1998. He has served in the state House and unsuccessfully ran for governor in 1996. In 2000, he beat a conservative Democrat, Mike Taylor, 55 percent to 44 percent.
''I put my record up to their rhetoric any day,'' Hayes said. ''We are out there doing the things that people sent me to Washington to do, on things like jobs, prescription medicine for the elderly and national defense.''
Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Hayes has worked hard in his first two terms.
''I think Mr. Kouri has some very serious problems now that he has survived the primary,'' Patru said.
Chief among them, he said, will be Kouri's ability to raise money without relying on political action committees.
''I don't see how he can remain competitive without being exposed as a hypocrite on this issue,'' Patru said.
During the primary, Kouri received no PAC money and campaigned that reliance on special-interest money had turned off voters.
Kouri spokesman Paul Blank said this week that Kouri has never criticized the acceptance of PAC money. He acknowledged that the race will take ''more resources'' than the $220,000 Kouri raised in the primary.
Experts say that challengers need to run TV commercials, which are expensive, to try to defeat incumbents.
Hayes said he has already spent $800,000 on television ads that will begin airing soon. Blank said no decision on using TV ads has been made.
''We have proven in the primary that it doesn't take as much money as you think to get our message out when people are excited about your candidate and his ideas,'' Blank said.
Blank said the Democratic poll exposes Hayes' voting record. In one question, voters were asked to pick a candidate after listening to descriptions of their views. Kouri won with 47 percent. Hayes got 41 percent.
Hayes spokesman Jonathan Felts said the results are meaningless without knowing how questions were worded or how Hayes' views were explained.
Thad Beyle, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, said two factors will influence the race: Republicans are scoring well with the public on national defense, while some polls show that voters trust Democrats more to improve the economy.
Beyle said he believes the race is tight.
''I wouldn't put any money on it,'' he said. ''You have to say that Hayes would have a slight advantage because of the incumbency. But Kouri is a fresh face, and that may be something that is attractive to people.''
Staff writer Andrew Barksdale can be reached at 486-3565 or barksdalea@fayettevillenc.com
