QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL 54% SAY DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE SWAP WAS UNFAIR

http://politicsnj.com/ ^ | 10/07/2002 | QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL

[Mollygal]

After leading Torricelli, Forrester narrowly trails Lautenberg

By STEVE KORNACKI

PoliticsNJ.com

WOODBRIDGE, October 7 - Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg is receiving a much warmer reception from New Jersey voters than Sen. Robert Torricelli did this year, but according to a new Quinnipiac University poll the way in which Lautenberg secured a spot on the ballot is keeping the race too close to call.

Lautenberg holds a 49%-45% lead over Republican Douglas Forrester, but the Democrat's four-percent cushion falls with the poll's margin of error. A poll by Quinnipiac several weeks ago placed Torricelli behind Forrester by four points.

54 percent of voters called the manner in which Lautenberg replaced Torricelli on the ballot "unfair." And 30 percent of voters overall said they would not be able to support Lautenberg as a result.

"The new Democratic candidate has turned the New Jersey Senate race into a whole new ballgame that will be decided by independent voters," said the poll's director, Clay F. Richards. "New Jersey voters don't like the way Senator Lautenberg got on the ballot, but they are glad to see tarnished Senator Robert Torricelli gone."

The poll shows Democratic and Republican voters rallying to their party candidates. 86 percent of Democrats back Lautenberg, and 88 percent of Republicans stand with Forrester. Independent voters are evenly split. In the last Quinnipiac poll, Forrester outpaced Torricelli 54-36 percent among independents.

Lautenberg, who previously served 18 years in the Senate, has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 46%-26% in the poll. Forrester is viewed favorably by 27% of voters, and unfavorably by 28%.

"The whole Torricelli mess has made Forrester better known," Richards stated. "But his negatives have gone up; he's lost ground with independents and 31 percent of voters say he is too conservative for New Jersey."

Democrats have attacked Forrester's stand on issues such as abortion, gun control and the environment as being out-of-step with Garden State voters. The poll also found 30 percent of voters saying Lautenberg is too liberal.

"Certainly, Forrester benefited from Torricelli being in the race, but now he's paying a price," observed David Rebovich of Rider University. "Without the ethical questions front and center, it seems he doesn't have a clear platform to fall back on."

Rebovich said the numbers represent good news for Lautenberg, but, given the number of voters upset with how Lautenberg replaced Torricelli, there might be an opening for the Republican.

"I'm sure he will hit the airwaves and highlight that issue, and it may be able to help him," he said.

Forrester's campaign manager, Bill Pascoe, said the rise in his candidate's negatives is to be expected after last week's events.

"When you get a week's worth of exposure for every Democratic hack, from Tom Daschle down, blasting Doug Forrester, it doesn't surprise me that his negatives went up," Pascoe said.

Pascoe said he was encouraged by the poll's results, pointing to the even-split among independents and the strong support each candidate enjoys within his party. "This is a ballgame," Pascoe said.

"This Machiavellian maneuver didn't work for the Democrats nearly as well as they thought it would," he added. "It got them back in the game, but that's all it did."

But Tom Shea, Lautenberg's Communications Director, said the numbers were a boon to his cause.

"The 49-45 [lead for Lautenberg] is very encouraging," he said. "The fact that [Forrester] has spent two-million dollars on television and still has a one-to-one favorable/unfavorable number is very telling. He's spent all of his money on attack ads and none of it on any issues."

Shea said the 30% of voters saying they won'' back Lautenberg because of how he made the ballot doesn't faze him. "He's at 49, and you only need to get to 50, so there's plenty of room for us to get where we need to be," he said.

The Quinnipiac survey polled 543 likely voters from October 2-6 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Only 54%? That's quite sad. What's wrong with the other 46% of New Jersey's populace?

[Wphile]

What's wrong with the other 46% of New Jersey's populace?

They're democrats. Just WIN, baby!

[Afronaut]

Too bad the stinkin Rinos in NJ stink! Good for them. They will lose with the Charlie Brown Rino also. Tough stuff. I hate my state.

[WOSG]

I am actually ENCOURAGED by 54% ... look at it this way NYT would say if they waned to "spin" it our way: A majority of voters oppose putting Lautenberg on the ballot ... so why are the Dems so complacent about going aginst majority will? NYT made a big deal of only a slightly larger percentage who wanted economy talked about more (what a gimme question, who doesnt want an issue raised? "no, dont tell me that!")

So 54% means that a majority of the voters dont like the stunt that was pulled. It will cap Lautenberg.

What I dont like in the number are the favs/unfavs ... Forrester is below Lautenberg. and while 30% think Lautenberg is too lib

Here's how Forrester can win: His base is very solid and very motivated ... Get some positive ID up there, with some solid and specific campaign planks. Hammer Lautenberg as too old, too liberal and too tied in with the corrupt Democrat party mahine, and then do real GOTV efforts, phone banks are needed and serious volunteer effort to get every GOP voter to the polls... if he does this and gets his favorable up to win more independent votes, he can squeak a narrow but convincing win.

[WOSG]

dont whine, dont be defeatist go out and help Forrester defeat that senile Liberal old coot Lautenberg before he again
starts voting against truth, good Justices, and the American Bush Way!