[lasereye]

Since this is not a Presidential election, that will favor the Pubbies a bit.

You've got that backwards. The "out" party typically does better in non-Presidential years.

[Coop]

No, I don't. I'm referring to turnout. The lower turnout always favors the Pubbies.

But you're right about the off-year White House troubles. However, using that same historical pattern, Dubya's high approval ratings mean the GOP has a decent chance of breaking even or gaining seats.