I'm not sure what you're saying. Should that occur, the GOP would lose two seats. Then they'd need MN and NJ (both reasonable shots) while holding on to NH to be even. Then the GOP would need to win IA, GA, MT or LA to get back the "majority."
When I said "close races", I meant basically too close to call. The Democrat has the clear edge in all those, although they may not have it wrapped up yet.
I guess I have a gut instinct that the GOP isn't going to do it, because despite all this talk that the campaign is being dominated by national security and President Bush's popularity, I just don't believe it. I also thought those polls showing voters don't blame the GOP for corporate scandals or the stock market are meaningless, since they were taken before the campaigns had really begun and Democrats could start running commercials blaming President Bush/Republicans.
This is going to be a low turnout election, so whoever gets their base and independents more angry/fearful will pull out the close ones. Which party is the master of that? You've got Republicans running these defensive campaigns based on Democrat type issues. I think if there's any late break that the polls aren't picking up right now, it'll be towards the Democrats, kind of like 98. That's why I'm not putting much hope in the races you cited.