When I said "close races", I meant basically too close to call. The Democrat has the clear edge in all those, although they may not have it wrapped up yet.
I guess I have a gut instinct that the GOP isn't going to do it, because despite all this talk that the campaign is being dominated by national security and President Bush's popularity, I just don't believe it. I also thought those polls showing voters don't blame the GOP for corporate scandals or the stock market are meaningless, since they were taken before the campaigns had really begun and Democrats could start running commercials blaming President Bush/Republicans.
This is going to be a low turnout election, so whoever gets their base and independents more angry/fearful will pull out the close ones. Which party is the master of that? You've got Republicans running these defensive campaigns based on Democrat type issues. I think if there's any late break that the polls aren't picking up right now, it'll be towards the Democrats, kind of like 98. That's why I'm not putting much hope in the races you cited.
It depends on which year you're talking about. 2000 - Dems. 1994 - GOP. Since this is not a Presidential election, that will favor the Pubbies a bit.
It's still too early for us to know what will occur, no matter what anyone says. There are a ton of close races, and a national trend in either direction could make for a blowout for one party. Or we could basically have local races and little change. We shall see. If you look at just poll numbers, I think the Pubbies are in better shape than the Dems. That would mean something if the elections were held today. :-)