[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

Karen Thurman was easily re-elected in 2000, but redistricting took away much of her Democratic base. Although this race is considered a Leans Democrat contest, most experts believe it to be competitive. The poll cited in this article gives Thurman only a 40-38 lead, which is very encouraging news for the GOP. However, I'm not sure when the poll was taken.

Torie: Was it you who said this race was one of your "special projects"?

On an unrelated note: Does anyone know when (or if), the top-line results from the Zogby tracking polls will be made public? The only ones I've heard so far are the Talent/Carnahan results (as posted elsewhere), and the Allard/Strickland results from Colorado. I've been told that Allard and Strickland are dead even at 41-41, but I have not confirmed this. If that's true, it would be a disappointing result, and would signify that Allard might be in serious trouble.

[Torie]

This seat is my special project, since alone among the "pundits" I am calling it an odds on GOP win (51% odds, but that is more than 50%). Waite is bashing Thurman because Thurman said some nice things about "privitizing" social security a couple of years back. Times have changed since then, and Waite is going for it. The only thing that makes it close IMO (this seat has a distinct GOP lean, and both candidates are well known and formidable) is this well funded (by himself) independent who is somewhat conservative. He is probably a McAuliffe plant. If so, that is about the only thing that McAuliffe has done to date so far to help the Dems. LOL.

[lasereye]

I heard Mark Davis, a conservative talk show host, cite the Allard-Strickland poll today. I don't know what kind of campaign themes Allard is running, but I wouldn't exactly be suprised if it's the same as a couple of other GOP campaigns - Coleman and Talent, i.e., denying he's going to "privatize" social security and talking about drug benefits. This is a sign of a campaign on the defensive, fighting it out on Democrat territory, and therefore losing.

If Allard, Hutchinson and Talent all lose, the GOP has to make a clean sweep of all the other close races just to get to 50 seats and be tormented for the next 2 years by Chafee threatening to bolt.