Wilson Leads Romero by 16% in 1st District [NM-01, NM-02]

Incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., has a strong lead over Democratic challenger Richard Romero in the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District, according to a Journal poll.

Wilson, a former National Security Council aide and state Cabinet secretary, who was first elected in a 1998 special election and re-elected twice since then, was favored by 53 percent of voters surveyed.

Romero, a former Albuquerque Public Schools administrator and the current president pro tem of the state Senate, was backed by 37 percent.

"Heather Wilson has a significant lead over her opponent, Richard Romero," said Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff.

In New Mexico's southern-based 2nd Congressional District, Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat John Arthur Smith were in a dead heat, the Journal poll found, with a month and a half to go before the Nov. 5 general election.

"We have a virtual deadlock in the race in the 2nd Congressional District, with each candidate at 39 percent," Sanderoff said.

The 2nd District seat is open this year due to the retirement of longtime Rep. Joe Skeen, R-N.M., who is retiring after 20 years in Congress.

The southern New Mexico race in particular is drawing national political attention this year because of the absence of an incumbent and the narrow margin of partisan control in the U.S. House. The 2nd District contest could make a difference in whether the House continues with a Republican majority next year, or turns to Democratic control.

"The bad news for Richard Romero is that he's 16 points behind Heather Wilson," Sanderoff said. "The good news is Heather is only 3 points above 50 percent and the lion's share of the undecideds are Democrats and independents."

Wilson leads Romero among both men and women, but her support strengthens among men, Sanderoff said.

Wilson also leads Romero among Anglo voters and those with incomes of more than $40,000, the poll indicated.

Among Hispanics, Romero was ahead of Wilson by 13 percentage points, but 38 percent of Hispanics surveyed backed Wilson. "That's interesting since she isn't Hispanic and he is," Sanderoff said. "That's a group that could come home to Romero."

Wilson was supported by 28 percent of Democrats surveyed, while Romero was backed by 10 percent of Republicans polled. "Heather has nearly all the Republicans locked," Sanderoff said.

In the 2nd District, the good news for Smith, a real estate appraiser and state senator from Deming, is that "there are many more undecided Democrats than undecided Republicans," Sanderoff said. "However, many Democrats in the south do not hesitate to vote for a Republican."

Pearce, an oil field service company owner and former state representative from Hobbs, "has a comfortable lead among Anglos and Smith has a comfortable lead among Hispanics," Sanderoff said.

Smith leads Pearce among voters with lower incomes, while Pearce is favored among those with higher incomes.

"This race could go down to the wire," Sanderoff said. "This race could be determined by turnout and which campaign has the better organization."

The Journal poll surveyed 278 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The survey, conducted Sept. 8-13, excluding Sept. 11, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.

For the Wilson-Romero race, the Journal polled 301 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District Sept. 8-13, excluding Sept. 11. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

A lot of the experts were listing NM-01 as a potential pick-up opportunity for the Dems. Heather Wilson (R) is the incumbent, winning by 7 points in her last race. This district narrowly went for Al Gore, 48-47. I've had it as a Lean GOP seat, and this latest poll is good news on that front.

NM-02 is an open seat, due to the retirement of Joe Skeen (R). A recent partisan poll put out by the GOP candidate (Pearce) showed him with a 9-point edge here, but this independent poll has the race dead even. I've had it as a toss-up, and it will probably remain that way until the end. The district did go for Bush, 54-43.

Poll Ping!

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

The district did go for Bush, 54-43.

I was just going to ask about that. Thanks. Sanchez closing the gap on Richardson in the gov's race may help out these GOP candidates in the 1st/2nd districts.

Glad to finally see something on another "Klintoonista" as I see Richardson's face all over the TV, babbling on about whatever, but no polls. Can you shed some light on this race...had a feeling Sanchez would close the gap especially since Bush has made several trips there. To bad he can't clone "himself" to help out all over the country every day. He's doing it all and I'm so proud!

Shed some light? Not really. Richardson's got high name recognition and a ton of dough. And he's over 50% in every poll except this GOP one. Can he be beaten? Sure. But I'm not holding my breath waiting for it to happen.

However, ask Bill McBride what a few weeks and a little momentum will do. :-)

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