2nd District contest tightens [ME-02]

BANGOR — A new sampling of likely voters in Maine’s two congressional races suggests one contest is close — and getting closer — while the other is not close — at least not yet.

The poll, conducted for a media partnership including the Bangor Daily News, suggests the gap is closing in the already tight race in Maine’s northern 2nd Congressional District between Democrat Mike Michaud and Republican Kevin Raye.

In the survey of 311 likely voters in the district, 31 percent said they would vote for Michaud, the Maine Senate president pro tem, if the election were held today. Raye, the longtime former aide to U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe, won 27 percent of likely voters, with 37 percent still undecided.

The difference between the two candidates was well within the poll’s 5.7 percent margin of error.

The RKM Research poll was conducted from Sept. 7 to 10 for a partnership among WLBZ 2 Bangor, WCSH 6 Portland, the Bangor Daily News and Maine Public Broadcasting.

Michaud aides stress the new survey reinforces their earlier polls, which put the veteran East Millinocket lawmaker on top by as much as 11 percentage points.

“We’re ahead and we’re doing everything we need to do, but taking nothing for granted,” said Michaud press secretary Monica Castellanos. “We’re meeting with the voters, talking about their issues, and the response is good.”

But the new numbers, which put Raye within just 4 points of Michaud with less than eight weeks to go before the election, suggest Raye could be making up ground.

And in an unusual show of support, the Republican fared better among women, 32 percent of whom said they would support the Perry resident over Michaud, who received support from 26 percent of likely women voters.

“This clearly shows that Kevin is the one with the momentum,” said Raye’s campaign manager Kathie Summers. “The fact is, the district has traditionally elected pro-gun, pro-choice candidates, and that’s Kevin.”

Both Michaud and Raye have the National Rifle Association’s top rating. On the abortion issue, Michaud is pro-life, although he says he wouldn’t support a constitutional amendment to overturn Roe vs. Wade. Raye is pro-choice.

Michaud bested Raye 47 percent to 10 percent among Democrats, and 27 percent to 21 percent among independent voters. Among Republican voters, Raye topped Michaud 52 percent to 17 percent, according to the poll.

Meanwhile, in Maine’s southern 1st District, incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Allen held a 55 percent to 17 percent lead over Republican challenger former state Rep. Steven Joyce, according to the poll, which surveyed 212 likely voters in that district.

Nineteen percent were undecided, and 9 percent said they would support another choice, although there are no other declared candidates for the seat.

Of the independents surveyed, half said they would vote for Allen, while 9.4 percent said they would vote for Joyce. Allen polled well among Republicans, with 31.4 percent saying they would choose him over Joyce. Joyce garnered the support of 35.2 percent of likely Republican voters.

Contacted on Friday, both camps downplayed the significance of the poll, citing the low sample.

“It’s not what I’m seeing out there,” Joyce said of the results. “We’re out there meeting with 300, 400, 500 people a day, and there’s no love affair with Tom Allen.”

“They see Tom as part of the problem,” Joyce continued. “Tom’s out there traipsing around the world, touting his liberal extremist environmental positions,” he said, referring to Allen’s recent appearance at the global climate summit in South Africa.

Jackie Potter, Allen’s chief of staff, conceded that the poll results were “a good thing,” despite what she called the small sample size. “It’s reassuring,” she said, “but the reality is, the election is two months away.”

I consider this poll to be good news. This district is an open seat, vacated by John Baldacci-D, who is now the gubernatorial favorite. I've had ME-02 leaning Dem all along. To see that the GOP candidate is only 4 points down is very encouraging.

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

It's encouraging, but for all the wrong reasons. Raye is practically the very worst the GOP could've dredged up for a nominee, along with the liberal RINO Jeb Bradley they nominated for Sununu's seat in NH. It'll be radical militant Portland feminazi pro-abortion Democrats who will vote for Raye over Michaud, and that's nothing to crow about. As with Linc Chafee in RI and Steve Lynch in MA, I wouldn't have that much of a problem voting for their pro-life Democrat opponents, as much as it pains me. Pro-abort Republicans make my skin crawl. :-(

P.S. At least in NH, we've got a future job opportunity for Bob Smith -- the 1st District was his old House seat, and I think he should try and take it back in '04.

I'm well aware of Bradley's dubious "credentials", but did not realize Raye was cut from the same cloth. I saw that he was rated strongly by the NRA, and was hoping he was a conservative. Thanks for the heads-up.

Raye's wife once worked for Emily's List and he is rabidly proabortion as well as a panty waste Republican: career water carrier for RINO's in Maine; never held a job in the private sector in his adult life.

As for Bradley, I am still puzzled. A draft dodger, he has to his credit earning a sociology degree from Tufts (1971 to 1974), while other young men his age were fighting and dying in Vietnam. Had time to learn rock climbing but no time to serve in uniform.

Bradley went home to the lakes region and worked in his family hardware store. He was a democrat until 1989; It would be interesting to see if he voted for Mondale, Hart or Jackson.

Now, where he stands on the death penalty, gay marriage, women in combat, drafting women into the military, the flag ammendment, etc. etc. it still unknow.

That he was elected still befuddles me; a hardware store owner who likes to climb rocks.

There is something definitely to be said for run-offs. Raye and Bradley both won because of a bad split of too many Conservatives in their respective primaries, otherwise our nominees would be pro-lifer John Stephen in NH and slightly-more-moderate Tim Woodcock in ME. This is going to be a serious danger for us in the coming years in non-run-off states with liberals waltzing to victories with scarcely 1/4th of the vote while the Conservatives get the other 3/4ths... The big question in NH is whether or not a lot of Conservatives will bother to turn out to help Bradley against Martha Fuller Clark, seeing as it appears there isn't a dimes worth of difference between the two (and that won't help Sununu). Perhaps we should vote for Bradley and then work to unite behind a candidate to beat him in the primary in '04 (and that ought to be Bob Smith).

appears there isn't a dimes worth of difference between the two

I don't know about that. I have talked to State Reps (Thomas, Czech, Rosen) and a Senator (Johnson) who supported this guy. It seems nobody asked him why he did not serve in uniform, nor did they ask about the federal death penalty, partial birth abortion, gays in uniform, his views on Bush's plan to begin harvesting western forests...nothing; nobody knows. He's a personable guy who did a good job on the utility issue and thus they lent him their support. We don't know where he stands.

Instead we hear he owned a hardware store in Wolfboro and likes to climb around rocks.

In NH, the fix may be to statutorily require a winning candidate to receive at least forty percent of the vote or face a run off primary. If you are interested, talk to NH State Senator Robert Boyce and put in a good word for the ammendment: I think he may be toying with introducing something like this.

"I don't know about that. I have talked to State Reps (Thomas, Czech, Rosen) and a Senator (Johnson) who supported this guy. It seems nobody asked him why he did not serve in uniform, nor did they ask about the federal death penalty, partial birth abortion, gays in uniform, his views on Bush's plan to begin harvesting western forests...nothing; nobody knows. He's a personable guy who did a good job on the utility issue and thus they lent him their support. We don't know where he stands."

That is simply remarkable. If personable is one of the only reasons why supposedly intelligent people would support a candidate for high office, I can point out to the local prison, there's lots of charming and personable folks sitting behind bars.

"Instead we hear he owned a hardware store in Wolfboro and likes to climb around rocks."

Well if the rest of the primary voters decide to stay at home or skip voting in that race, ole Jeb will have a lot of time to "Climb ev'ry mountain" come January.

"In NH, the fix may be to statutorily require a winning candidate to receive at least forty percent of the vote or face a run off primary. If you are interested, talk to NH State Senator Robert Boyce and put in a good word for the ammendment: I think he may be toying with introducing something like this."

Well, if he'd listen to an out-of-stater like moi (I'm in TN). We've got the same exact problem in this state, as well as in others. Sometimes it isn't so bad (when the Dems badly split and nominate a leftist radical that has zilch hope in the general), but sometimes it is (such as with Jeb). Back in '96, so many candidates flooded into the TN-1st US House district GOP primary that the winner emerged with a stunning 18% of the vote (only 300 votes ahead of the nearest competitor). Fortunately, the winner, Bill Jenkins, was a good guy, and won a landslide general victory in the historically GOP district.

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