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Shaheen increases lead over Smith
American Research Group ^ | 3-29-02 | American Research Group

Posted on 03/29/2002 5:24:57 PM PST by GraniteStateConservative


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The New Hampshire Poll

March 29, 2002

Quarterly Survey - March 2002

The following results are based on 558 completed

telephone interviews conducted March 25 through 28, 2002 among a random sample of registered voters in New Hampshire.

A total of 198 registered Republicans, 144 registered Democrats, and 216 undeclared (independent)

voters were interviewed. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus

or minus 4.25 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinions are evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the election for US Senate were being held today between Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, and Bob Smith, the Republican, for whom would you vote - Shaheen or Smith? (names rotated)

2002 US Senate Match-up Shaheen Smith Undecided
March 2002 40% 31% 29%
December 2001 31% 35% 34%
September 2001 43% 35% 22%
July 2001 42% 42% 16%
June 2001 41% 42% 17%
January 2001 48% 38% 14%

 

2002 Match-up by party

Republicans

Democrats

Undeclared

Jeanne Shaheen

15%

53%

54%

Bob Smith

44%

32%

17%

Undecided

  41%

  15%

  29%

Totals

100%

100%

100%

 

If the election for US Senate were being held today between Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, and John Sununu, the Republican, for whom would you vote - Shaheen or Sununu? (names rotated)

2002 US Senate Match-up Shaheen Sununu Undecided
March 2002 36% 40% 24%
December 2001 29% 39% 32%
September 2001 39% 47% 14%
July 2001 35% 49% 16%
June 2001 35% 50% 15%

 

2002 Match-up by party

Republicans

Democrats

Undeclared

Jeanne Shaheen

4%

58%

51%

John Sununu

67%

16%

31%

Undecided

  29%

  26%

  17%

Totals

100%

100%

100%

Top  | 

NH Poll  | 

ARG home



TOPICS: New Hampshire; Polls; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: bobsmith; jeanneshaheen; johnsununu
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To: TBP
I think it is an overstatement to say that 'the GOP is eager to dump Bob Smith'.

RINOs are, for sure. But the rank and file, and many leaders, are grateful for Bob's years-long faithfulness to conservative principle.

I believe you'll see that pay off at the polls in September's primary, and in the general election.

Regards...EV

21 posted on 03/30/2002 5:20:36 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: BlackElk
From your claim that Republican women won't vote for Bob Smith, I infer that that you think the reason is that Bob Smith is not a Planned Barrenhood favorite

No, the reason women aren't going to vote for Smith is because he is a fat buffoon. He is the type of conservative that scares women and children. Smith was always the guest that Geraldo got on his show back at CNBC/MSNBC when Jerry Falwell wasn't avaible to make conservatives look bad.

This primary election will come down between the conservatives that want to win elections and further a conservative agenda and conservatives that yell and beat their chests and like to lose elections.

22 posted on 03/30/2002 5:40:51 PM PST by afuturegovernor
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To: TBP
(Sununu) increases Shaheen's chances of winning.

What kind of math are you using?

Sununu is winning by 4 points and Smith is losing by 9 points. The only person hurting Bob Smith is Bob Smith

So ask yourself...Senator Sununu or Senator Shaheen?

23 posted on 03/30/2002 5:46:06 PM PST by afuturegovernor
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To: BlackElk
Granting that Sununu the Younger has a reasonable voting record, he ought to regard himself as fortunate to have a Congressional seat after his father

So? Ronald Reagan's father had a huge drinking problem and couldn't hold a steady job?

24 posted on 03/30/2002 5:49:46 PM PST by afuturegovernor
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To: afuturegovernor
No, the reason women aren't going to vote for Smith is because he is a fat buffoon.

And you are a shallow *ss.

Bob Smith has been more consistent in support of the principles of Free Republic than any other U.S. Senator.

He is the type of conservative that scares women and children.

No, he scares RINOs, because he doesn't compromise on the items in the Republican platform. Our problem in government isn't with people like Bob Smith, it's with chameleons who have no moral compass...whose only hard and fast rule is to get re-elected, or to please the liberals in the media and in DC.

Smith was always the guest that Geraldo got on his show back at CNBC/MSNBC when Jerry Falwell wasn't avaible to make conservatives look bad.

What tripe.

This primary election will come down between the conservatives that want to win elections and further a conservative agenda and conservatives that yell and beat their chests and like to lose elections.

I think you need to work on your definition of conservative.

If you are a future governor, God help us...we won't have made much progress on ridding the party of RINOs and other liberals.

25 posted on 03/30/2002 6:12:46 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: afuturegovernor
By the way, if Sununu wins the primary, Bob Smith's supporters will be out in force to defeat Shaheen.

But the question is, if Smith wins the primary, are the RINOs going to take their ball and go home?

My guess is that Smith is going to beat Sununu. If he is then defeated in the general, it will be because the Sununu supporters did this, as they did in New Jersey to Schundler.

I fully expect to see the 'moderates', or at least a large proportion of them, endorsing Shaheen. And why not? Their agenda more closely resembles hers than Bob Smith's or the Republican Party.

But Smith can still win. Every sentient being in New Hampshire knows that Shaheen is an extremist leftist, and incompetent to boot.

26 posted on 03/30/2002 6:22:51 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: EternalVigilance
And you are a shallow *ss.

I'm shallow for pointing out that Smith's appearance turns off voters? In 2002, in the day of television politics appearance matters. There is a reason Geraldo got the Smith/Falwell crowd to debate liberals on his show. It's because they have little appeal outside the conservative base. Reagan, on the other hand, was conservative and appealed greatly to moderates and some Democrats.

Bob Smith has been more consistent in support of the principles of Free Republic than any other U.S. Senator.

With Smith's support of the fight against the Bush energy plan with ANRW drilling I'm not so sure about that. (Not that I in any way expect every senator to agree with me 100% of the time. That is not possible and I know it.) On a purely techincal point a well-spoken senator from PA named Rick Santorum might better reflect FreeRepublic ideals better. I'm not bashing Smith's record on the most part. I think its a fine conservative record +95% of the time.

No, he scares RINOs, because he doesn't compromise on the items in the Republican platform.

He scares Republicans that don't want Tom Dashcle as majority leader in after November 2002. If he wins the primary the GOP has to pick-up one more seat because he will likely lose.(Not to beat a dead horse, but isn't a energy plan part of the 2000 GOP platform?)

Our problem in government isn't with people like Bob Smith, it's with chameleons who have no moral compass

Wasn't it Bob Smith that turned from republican red to independent white and back to republican red.?

By the way, if Sununu wins the primary, Bob Smith's supporters will be out in force to defeat Shaheen.

But the question is, if Smith wins the primary, are the RINOs going to take their ball and go home?

Do you really and honestly think that John Sununu Jr. is a Republican in name only? and that he really belongs with the liberals and Democrats? Right now Sununu is beating Smith in Republican primary polls. The only way this is possible is that Sununu is getting a large percent of the conservative base vote. And New Hampshire isn't exactly a far left-wing state. It was the only Bush state in New England. I hope whoever wins the primary will have a unifed party and I think that they will.

Finally, who is a Rino in your book? Where did you draw the line? Is it anybody that doesn't agree with you on every single issue? Is Condi Rice a Rino? Or Jesse Helms a Rino? Donald Rumsfeld? Thad Cochran? Fred Thompson? Richard Shelby? Orrin Hatch? George W. Bush? Larry Craig? Ben Nighthorse Campbell? Ronald Reagan? Chuck Hagel? Richard Cheney? Don Nickels? Phil Gramm? Bill Frist? Richard Lugar? Mike DeWine?

27 posted on 03/30/2002 10:37:21 PM PST by afuturegovernor
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To: afuturegovernor
I'm shallow for pointing out that Smith's appearance turns off voters? In 2002, in the day of television politics appearance matters.

You are shallow for making an issue of your negative opinion of Smith's appearance. I will take Smith over 20 blowdried, cookie cutter Republican pseudo-conservative empty suits any day of the week.

There is a reason Geraldo got the Smith/Falwell crowd to debate liberals on his show. It's because they have little appeal outside the conservative base. Reagan, on the other hand, was conservative and appealed greatly to moderates and some Democrats.

Doesn't make any difference how many times you say it, it's still tripe. Looks are overrated, especially when it comes to Senators. Look back through history, and you will see that Bob looks like a Senator. You also don't have a clue what you are talking about, since you are drawing your conclusions from TV appearance, which is a tiny part of New Hampshire politics...I've seen Bob with the public one-on-one, and he makes a tremendously positive impression with people.

Bob Smith has been more consistent in support of the principles of Free Republic than any other U.S. Senator.

With Smith's support of the fight against the Bush energy plan with ANRW drilling I'm not so sure about that. (Not that I in any way expect every senator to agree with me 100% of the time. That is not possible and I know it.)

I'm sure Bob has his reasons for opposing ANWR...I don't know what they are, but this issue is just an anamoly...the exception that proves the rule.

You and your fellow Sununu supporters keep beating this dead horse because you don't have anything of substance to use.

On a purely techincal point a well-spoken senator from PA named Rick Santorum might better reflect FreeRepublic ideals better. I'm not bashing Smith's record on the most part. I think its a fine conservative record +95% of the time.

Santorum is great, absolutely one of the best we've got. But on the key issues that FReepers care about; free speech, guns, defense, life and liberty; Bob Smith has stood fast many times when everyone else folded to the left. If you don't know the difference between the politicians who mouth conservative positions and those who are champions for the conservative cause, I'm not going to convince you. (Yes, Santorum is one of those few champions...do you believe John Sununu will be?...just curious.)

No, he scares RINOs, because he doesn't compromise on the items in the Republican platform.

He scares Republicans that don't want Tom Dashcle as majority leader in after November 2002.

Only because they are wimps. There are 100 different ways to crush the Dems this fall...problem is leadership that thinks the way to victory is through appeasement and surrender i.e. nominating candidates who are no better or different than Democrats.

If he wins the primary the GOP has to pick-up one more seat because he will likely lose.

Not if Republicans run a good campaign. Shaheen is a joke. Why are moderates so scared of her? (truth is they aren't really...they are just using this as a ruse to knock off Smith)

Our problem in government isn't with people like Bob Smith, it's with chameleons who have no moral compass

Wasn't it Bob Smith that turned from republican red to independent white and back to republican red.?

Big deal. He did it to make a point about conditions in the party. Did you actually listen to his speech in the Senate? Do you disagree that the party is being run by a bunch of compromised and compromising squishes? He came back to the GOP, he didn't change his positions (they are still solidly conservative) and his constituents don't care as much about party affiliation as his detractors claim to care.

Do you really and honestly think that John Sununu Jr. is a Republican in name only?

No. But he is no conservative champion either. And the fact remains that it IS RINO's who are pushing his challenge to an incumbent conservative Republican U.S. Senator.

Right now Sununu is beating Smith in Republican primary polls.

I have as much use for a poll 6 months from an election as I have for used toilet paper.

I hope whoever wins the primary will have a unifed party and I think that they will.

Let's hope you are correct.

Finally, who is a Rino in your book?

Anyone who compromises our God-given rights to life and liberty.

Where did you draw the line?

As close to the goal line as I can get.

Is it anybody that doesn't agree with you on every single issue?

No.

Is Condi Rice a Rino?

Yes. She is in favor of killing innocent babies in the womb. (But she is so good on other things!...you say. She's so smart!... and attractive!...and she's black! Too bad. Anyone who is not pro-life is disqualified from being a conservative in my book...just as a car without a frame can't be called a car...its just a pile of auto parts. Get a frame, and maybe we can construct something that's of use.)

As to the rest of your list? There are several stone cold RINOs there; and a bunch of true-blue conservatives, but in the main, the Senate is loaded with hack politicans, and very few statesmen...very few who can claim the label of champion for the principles that made this country great.

28 posted on 03/31/2002 7:52:01 AM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: BlackElk
The more conservative Sununu will beat Smith and have a stronger chance of beating Shaheen. Baring a major scandal for Shaheen, she would crush Smith with little effort.
29 posted on 03/31/2002 4:08:44 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: EternalVigilance
I'm sure Bob has his reasons for opposing ANWR...I don't know what they are, but this issue is just an anamoly...the exception that proves the rule.

If someone gave an answer like that to defend a position Sununu gave you'd be calling us pom-pom wavers and saying we believe "Sununu can do no wrong." Don't bother denying it.

The hypocrisy of some you all is astonishing.

30 posted on 03/31/2002 4:11:51 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat
You one-issue types are so predictable.

/sarcasm

31 posted on 03/31/2002 4:17:23 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: Republican Wildcat
The more conservative Sununu...

That's a joke, right? Ha ha. Maybe you should submit that one to the humor threads.

...Sununu will beat Smith...

Yeah right. I was at one event last week...a county wide Republican event...that Sununu couldn't even turn out 10 people for. Smith had a large crowd of supporters present. You're blowing smoke.

Bob Smith is an incumbent. He has a very deep and underrated grassroots support system. He has raised tons of dollars. He is liked and respected by regular folks because he is viewed as one of them...he doesn't put on the airs that most Senators are prone to put on.

...and have a stronger chance of beating Shaheen.

Bullhockey. That's the RINO line, but it's manufactured by RINOs purely for the purposes of misleading the simple-minded. Polls 6 months and 8 months from an election are about as useful as used toilet paper.

Baring a major scandal for Shaheen, she would crush Smith with little effort.

More bull. Shaheen is a joke. Her term as Governor has been a joke. Why would you want to puff her up into some kind of unbeatable enemy? No ulterior motives are there? LOL...

Humphrey would have beat her two years ago, if he hadn't been stupid and listened to the RINOs who convinced him to run to the left.

32 posted on 03/31/2002 4:31:07 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: EternalVigilance
That's a joke, right?

Nope. Yeah right. I was at one event last week...a county wide Republican event...that Sununu couldn't even turn out 10 people for. Smith had a large crowd of supporters present. You're blowing smoke.

Well, we'll see.

Bob Smith is an incumbent.

And one not only running at less than 50%, but well below the challenger. That's not good news. Your argument about the timing of the poll is not relevant precisely because he is an incumbent--if he's so good he'd already have substantial support--certainly more than what he has had. I just hope your faith in his strength pans out and a miracle occurs if he does manage to win the nomination.

33 posted on 03/31/2002 7:27:57 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: EternalVigilance
Now that is funny. LOL. :-)
34 posted on 03/31/2002 7:28:54 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat
I just hope your faith in his strength pans out and a miracle occurs if he does manage to win the nomination.

And in the meantime, we are pulling out every stop to defeat Tim Johnson, Paul Wellstone, Tom Harkin, Jean Carnahan, Mary Landrieu, Max Baucus, et al.

35 posted on 03/31/2002 7:59:57 PM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: EternalVigilance
Bingo defeat Carnahan, Wellstone, Landreiu, Harkin, Tim Johnson and Baucus. 100% chance atleast one of these will be defeated. Even odds 4 of them will.
36 posted on 04/01/2002 10:00:16 AM PST by CPT Clay
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To: CPT Clay
Even odds 4 of them will.

I totally agree. Of course it is incumbent on us to do everything in our power to up those odds as the year progresses.

Regards...EV

37 posted on 04/01/2002 10:08:08 AM PST by EternalVigilance
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To: BlackElk
After Smith did the yoyo thing in 1999, something worthy of Jeffords, why do you trust him over Sununu? Sure Smith is conservative, but he's wishy-washy. Otherwise, why would he lambast the GOP, then rejoin it? I have no respect for anti-GOP conservatives. If the Republican party is too moderate for you, then you're a flake. And I don't care what else Smith has done right, this was the kiss of death. The GOP is our one-and-only vehicle for conservatives to attain power; if you disagree with that, you believe in being out of power and complaining 24/7. The person behind the steering wheel drives the car, not the children in the back seat. Smith is more like those waterhead LP cultists; I sincerely hope he likes retirement, because, whether by Shaheen or Sununu, this dunderhead is on track for retirement, whether the polls reflect this or not. BTW, "vote-getter" Smith barely eeked into office in '96. After denouncing the GOP, then rejoining it, how are diehard Republicans, like me, going to view that come Nov 5th? I'm as conservative as you, maybe even more, but I don't enlist in "Don Quixote" dead-end causes. And "hat-trick Bobert" is a dead end. He will be a LP member before Dec rolls around. They have such low standards over there, and are painfully desparate, that RS will find a home there, will very little difficulty.....
38 posted on 04/11/2002 4:29:50 PM PDT by Malcolm
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To: BlackElk
That northeast politic group of States from Connecticut, Mass,Maine, NH, Vermont reminds me of some of the alien plots in the Stephen King novels that I have read.

Maybe some of these things actually happened.

39 posted on 04/11/2002 5:13:16 PM PDT by oldtimer
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To: Republican Wildcat
>> The more conservative Sununu will beat Smith <<

Your "more conservative" Sununu:

*Killed the Product Liability Limits bill
(a bill applauding by conservatives for capping punitive damages against small businesses for unintentional product defects)
*Was AGAINST the 1998 balenced-budget amendment
*Was FOR the United Nations debt repayment in every circumstance
*Was FOR NEA funding in every circumstance
*Was FOR the amendment to kill defense funding for the B-2 bomber.
*Was the ONLY Republican to vote against a bill penalizing the Palestinian Authority if it declared itself an independent state without Israel's consent.
*Was one of only six Republicans to vote against a measure opposing the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian free state
*Supported confirming ultra-leftist Clinton judges (like Ruth Bader Ginsburg) that Smith tried to stop
*RECENTLY hosted a fundraiser for Ziad Asali, president of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee. (Following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Asali said Osama bin Laden "may be a champion" to some Muslims because he had seized on "legitimate grievances deeply felt in the Arab and Islamic world.")
*Recieved a "minus" rating from Gun Owners of New Hampshire for favoring mandatory FBI checks for private purchasers at gun shows, and requiring gun purchasers to pay a gun tax. (Smith received a perfect "100%" by the same group, was endorsed over your boy)
*Failed to oppose Castro's efforts to force Elian Gonzoles' back to Cuba

Let's see... that's almost a dozen "positions" where Sununu's record is TO THE LEFT of Smith's. Meanwhile, you Sununu-backers scream "Smith supported ANWR!! Smith supported ANWR!!!" incessantly because you are unable to find ANY other issues where Smith did something "liberal". Why can't you just be honest? Smith has an A+ rating (and endorsement) from EVERY major gun organization, he has the 2nd highest rating of any member of congress from the American Taxpayers Association, he was named "Best and Brightest" by the American Conservative Union, and the John Birch Soecity named him the MOST conservative member of the entire U.S. Senate, surpassing their previous choice of Jesse Helms.

Is it really so hard to be HONEST? Try posting this line: "Gee whiz, my guy can't hold a candle to Bob Smith's conservativism, but he still votes the party line most of the time. I'm backing him because I believe whatever polls the media puts up and I support the GOP blue-blooded elite status quo because I think only they can win."

40 posted on 04/11/2002 7:56:14 PM PDT by BillyBoy
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