Trump has work to do in N.H. to drum up support, strategists and activists say

As Donald Trump looks to fire up his base Thursday night in New Hampshire, GOP political strategists and activists say the president needs to tout his economic successes, push back at “socialism” and reintroduce voters to the “unique appeal” that catapulted him to office.

Trump returns tonight to the Southern New Hampshire University arena in Manchester — the site of his election eve rally in 2016 — for a “Keep America Great” re-election campaign event set to begin at 7 p.m.

“He has a unique appeal,” Republican strategist Mike Dennehy said. “We know that he has the ability to connect and get voters to the polls.”

After winning New Hampshire’s Republican primary in 2016, Trump narrowly lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election. Dennehy noted Trump is “the only Republican who has come close to winning New Hampshire since George W. Bush won it in 2000” — no small feat in what has become a purple state.

But Trump remained underwater in the latest University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released this week, in which 53% of those surveyed disapproved of Trump and 42% approved of him — nearly identical to the 54% disapproval and 41% approval ratings he garnered in UNH’s April survey.

Yes it will need to be fought for, but, I believe, short of an economic collapse, or a black swan event, that Trump will outperform his 2016 numbers by about 4-6 points on the low end just about everywhere in 2020.

A lot of disenfranchised D’s and Independents stayed home or voted scared for Hillary due to the rhetoric that Trump would destroy the nation, or because they thought Trump had no intention of delivering on his promises and was just another politician.

Now in 2020, they have a 4 year track record and the fear mongering about Trump destroying the country have no teeth. So those that voted out of fear in 16, will not in 20, and those disenfranchised who thought Trump was just all talk know better and show up.

Predition:

Trump will win ever state he took in 16.

Trump will take most if not all states he lost in 16 by 5 or less points.

Trump will take the fight to states he got between 40 and 45% of the vote in 16 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to pull out a few wins there as well.

I see the absolute high water mark for the D’s at 15 or 16 states plus DC in 2020, no matter who the candidate is.

if they put up one of the more whackadoos, D’s may not even be able to win 10 states plus DC.

Predition:

Trump will win ever state he took in 16.

Trump will take most if not all states he lost in 16 by 5 or less points.

Trump will take the fight to states he got between 40 and 45% of the vote in 16 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to pull out a few wins there as well.

I see the absolute high water mark for the D’s at 15 or 16 states plus DC in 2020, no matter who the candidate is.

if they put up one of the more whackadoos, D’s may not even be able to win 10 states plus DC.

Agree on NH, also Trump should take MN. I see NV as “gettable.”

Next tier is tough: Rs are in the minority now in CO and are down about 90k in NM, which is a small state with no room to make up the difference with indies. ME is in this group.

Next group is tougher: VA was over 200,000, but it hasn’t gone R in three elections now.

Oh absolutely Trump get MN in 2020... had the election been a few days later Trump would have gotten MN in 16 IMHO.

Trump will get more registered rank and file D’s than anyone is remotely predicting in 2020. Just like he did in the Rust Belt.

As the saying goes.. It’s the economy stupid.

We’ll see how it all plays out, but I see ZERO path for the Dems.

Trump will be re-elected by the biggest electoral landslide since Reagan.... even though the dynamics will be closer to 72 than 84. No it won’t be 49-1, but there is ZERO path for any D, and there isn’t a “moderate” in the D bunch.. .least not one polling over 1%. Joe, as much as the media wants to post him as a moderate, is not..though he seems like it next to many of the looney toons also on the stage.

I believe their best case scenario is what I stated before 15 or so states plus DC.... and the more left wing the candidate is, the lower that number gets.

Trump WON 16 with the D and I vote... He’s going to take even bigger portions of both in 2020, and just like 16, the pollsters won’t catch it because many of those D’s will be disenfranchised D’s who stopped voting long ago because their party went nuts. They wouldn’t vote R because no R gave them reason to, but they wouldn’t vote for the D’s either...

Trump shattered that ceiling in 16, and now, that he’s got a track record, and the fear mongering about he is going to wreck everything etc looks as stupid as it was.. and folks paychecks are growing for the first time in nearly 2 decades, you better believe he’s going to get more of that block in 2020... much more.

Still over a year to go, but I see ZERO path for any Dem to even make it close.

CO, OR, NM, VA are still long shots.

I agree. But you can forget about OR and remove it even from this long shot list. I think New Jersey is actually more likely than Oregon, which is steadfastly anti-Trump, almost as much as California.

I am just surprised that CO is so long gone after being in play just a decade ago, and being a reddish state about 15 years ago.

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