Posted on 08/12/2019 5:44:03 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
On November 7, 2016 — one day before the presidential election — mainstream polling suggested that Hillary Clinton’s chances of being elected were at or above 80 percent. Relying on data and surveys that systematically underestimated Donald Trump, the nation’s leading news publications ran headlines declaring, “Trump’s chances of winning approach zero.”
The rest, as we all know too well, is history. Prior to 2016, polls provided useful and relatively accurate political forecasts. But today they can no longer be trusted—even when Trump isn’t on the ballot. While 2018 midterm polls predicted more accurate overall results than 2016, they still underestimated Republicans in several key states and races.
So what caused the decline of accurate polling? The answer, at least in part, is related to the public othering and harassment of Republicans over the last several years. Texas Congressman Joaquin Castro showed an egregious example of such treatment by tweeting the names of 44 Trump donors who live in his San Antonio district. Castro continues to refuse that he crossed a line by intentionally attempting to ostracize local Trump supporters with public embarrassment and shame.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
.. public othering and harassment???
It’s a term used by the left to mean “the other” or not one of us.
Always wondered how they obtain a meaningful sample. Most rational, decent people would hang up on some unwanted call seeking personal information.
Ahh, they (the others) even have their own language! How precocious.
It's called the Shy Tory Factor.
Shows why current polling has been made unreliable:
1. People don’t want to admit voting for Trump.
2. Conservative voters are typically at work when pollsters call.
3. Caller ID lets the intended polled person opt out.
4. Most pollsters oversample democrats.
5. Most pollsters know the answers they are seeking and will cast out results they think are “outliers”.
For these and other reasons, Trump, who is generally shown to have 43 - 50% approval, is actually in the 52-55% region. In addition, if he got reasonably fair coverage by MSM, I believe he would be approaching 60%.
I believe that the more shrill the left becomes, the less conservatives will participate in polls attempting to predict elections.
I don’t, and if the whole election environment were more hospitable to sharing political opinions with strangers I MIGHT participate, but in the face of AntiFa, and people wearing MAGA hats being assaulted, when asked I hang up or tell them to mind their own business.
Also, I just love the hysteria the left demonstrates the day after their failed election. Again, specifically because they are so hostile to any opinion other than their own.
If Trump had fair coverage, he’d probably be way over 60%. Good economy, wages growing faster than inflation, good judges, no new wars, etc
They spew divisive venom, then wonder why normal people don’t trust them.
Polls are not and never have been anything more than an instrument of trying to move people one way or another in effect isolating them from “The Crowd”
They mean nothing to me as I do what I want and think what I want and I do not need to know how many others do nor care
I suggest that pollsters need to report the percentages by call count, not by response count. Example: 10% has a preference for A, 12% has a preference for B, 5% has no opinion, and 73% did not participate.
Will NEVER happen. There is inherent dishonesty in public polling these days.
“Will NEVER happen. There is inherent dishonesty in public polling these days.”
Actually paid for private polling for candidates is accurate. This information is never released to the public.
It should be noted Hillary canceled her firework celebration before election day. She had access to accurate polling. She knew she would lose.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.