I don’t know, I think Johnson with no Republican in the race and the tacit support of the state GOP (or Johnson AS the Republican nominee) might have had a chance. Heinrich is not strong.
But Johnson’s collapse in the polls perhaps indicates he wouldn’t he prevailed. He’s not a very good campaigner I don’t think. Also he wouldn’t have had the President’s endorsement.
I wanted LT Governor John Sanchez in the race rather than the damaged Martinez, him or Steve Pearce or even Heather Wilson again. Or Aubrey Dunn, a statewide officeholder, though he bombed out of his bizarre Libertarian run.
Johnson could not have won a Republican nomination. He was actively trying to take votes away from them in his two Presidential runs. Rewarding him for doing that — especially against Trump ?! Nope. As I’ve said countless times, his time to have run was in 2000. That’s long since passed.
Sanchez didn’t have the fire in the belly to run (he didn’t want to run for Governor, either). He may have run some private polls indicating he wouldn’t make it. I’m hoping Pearce still pulls it out for Governor. Lujan Grisham will be a fiasco. Heather Wilson didn’t want to go down that road again for Senator.