I don’t know the route to which we could conceivably win the seat. Although Heinrich, with both opponents remaining, likely wins with anywhere from 45% to even low 50s%, I think if either Rich or Johnson to withdraw in favor of the other, it still would be to the benefit of Heinrich, who would then likely move into the mid to high 50s%.
It’s frustrating we can’t find a way to merge the opposition into a single viable candidate. Alas, had Gov. Susana Martinez been a more successful and popular leader, she would be in the running. If both men withdrew in her favor, she’d still be lucky to get 45% to Heinrich’s 55%. Higher than either two, but not enough to win.
Former ABQ Mayor R.J. Berry might’ve been formidable for one of three offices (Gov/Sen/Rep for NM-1), but he also left office after two subpar terms and failure to curb the city’s crime problem and bolster the economy (his Dem predecessor and current successor have also similarly failed), and became obsessed with completing a ridiculously expensive and unpopular and unnecessary downtown streetcar line that the businesses effected by it didn’t even want. Not something you’d tend to expect from a Republican.
Heinrich himself is so dreadfully mediocre and probably has a majority negative popularity in NM, but would only win because his disapprovals aren’t as high as his opponents.
The three premier goals at the moment for the NM GOP is not displacing Heinrich, but keeping the Governorship, Pearce’s House seat and preventing any disastrous losses in the legislature.
FWIW, about three months ago I had a tour scheduled this September coming up with the Rio Grande (free market) Institute of several NM cities for a one-week period.
I got ahold of the NM Republican Party and asked if they’d like to have me speak to any of their groups, free, since I’m in town. No one ever got back to me, and I called two more times. My sense is NM Republicans are desperately in need of leadership-—on a lot of levels.
That bastard Aubrey Dunn should have just run as a Republican.
” preventing any disastrous losses in the legislature.”
Only the House is up I believe. Taking it back should be the goal, not just avoiding losses.