Nate Silver is full of obama.
If Pickles has a 67.5 percent chance of winning, how can she be poised to lose the race by the loss of just one state?
I think Silver is off.....But with Trump, I’ll take Silver’s odds (today) of Trump having a more than 1 in 3 chance of winning. Trump probably looks at those odds and says: “Piece of cake...I’m in!”
>>If Pickles has a 67.5 percent chance of winning, how can she be poised to lose the race by the loss of just one state?
He seems to assume that the states are very highly correlated, but this is not really the case. Nonetheless, if NH has a 40% chance of flipping to Trump, and MI has a 23% chance, the probability of flipping at least one of the two must be greater than 40% unless they are 100% correlated:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/#now
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/#now