Posted on 09/25/2016 2:22:58 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It appears the race in PA has tightened.
That’s according to the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg survey, which has Hillary Clinton at 44% and Donald Trump at 41%.
Just a week ago, Morning Call and Muhlenberg College had Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage over Trump.
If Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows to two points, 40% to 38%. Johnson and Stein get 8% and 3% respectively.
Demographics
Digging into the crosstabs, Trump’s gains seem to come from additional support from Republicans (85/5) and the middle of the commonwealth (57/31). On the other hand, Clinton leads with Democrats (78/9) and Independents (40/34) as well as Southeast residents (57/26). Trump edged ahead among Southwest residents (44/42).
The gender and educational gaps were both present again. Clinton has an eleven-point advantage with women (48/39) and college graduates (49/38). Meanwhile Trump is ahead by five with men (45/40) and six with non-college graduates (45/39).
The biggest discrepancy, however, is racial. By a 49% to 38% margin, whites favor Trump while non-whites prefer Clinton 68% to 13%.
Finally, 18 to 29 year-olds are with Clinton 51% to 29% whereas 50 to 64 year-olds favor her 45% to 43%. 30 to 49 year-olds are tied 42% to 42% while those over 65 years-old prefer Trump 47% to 41%.
Analysis
How did one week make such a difference? As implausible as it may seem, there might not have been any change at all.
It really doesn’t really make sense for Clinton to post a strong result in the midst of a public bout with pneumonia, but then have worse numbers a week later when no major events happened in between.
It’s likely as simple that both surveys were outliers and/or subject to sampling error. It may well be the case that a nine-point lead is Clinton’s best-case scenario and a three-point lead is the worst. Monday night’s debate could very well swing the numbers between the two poles of a solid Clinton lead and a within the margin of error toss-up.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll was conducted by Muhlenberg University from September 19th to 23rd. They surveyed 486 likely Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error is +/-5%.
Cankles up 1.5 in CO RCP average.
Seat her in the front row during the debate.
Seat her in the front row during the debate.
All four Benghazi families should be in the front row, IMO!!!
Seat her in the front row during the debate.
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