Can Trump win New York? Absolutely. He is +12 upstate and winning narrowing in the suburbs. She is at 63% in NYC well below Obama’s 79% average. Trump gets 20% in New York City which is double the 10% Republican registration. This means he is already Black and Hispanic votes because that’s the only place they can come from. Trump will at least put NYS in play enough to force her to spend money and energy on New York which is a good thing either way.
source ?
I think you are off a bit - undercounting Trumps support :)