Hillary is sinking.
Using 2012 turnout (or even worse- 2012 exit polls) for weighting the results is the most egregious and common fault in major polls.
It’s my understanding that polling is getting more difficult for several reasons...one being that fewer and fewer homes have landlines.IMO the best indication of how Trump is doing is how shrill the Former Twelfth Lady is in speeches and ads.”Trump will have people of color starving in the streets” means that her private polling sees trouble.
DJT will kick the snot out of HRC ~ Go, Trump, GO!
Nahh! The media would never lie to us about polls or the Clintons. The media is honest, telling the truth so the country will be well informed. The media wants what is best for this country and are not interested in manipulating the masses only for profit. The media is high in the polls for telling the truth and bringing us Obama.
Why should people being polled tell the truth?
Nahh! The media would never lie to us about polls or the Clintons. The media is honest, telling the truth so the country will be well informed. The media wants what is best for this country and are not interested in manipulating the masses only for profit. The media is high in the polls for telling the truth and bringing us Obama.
Why should people being polled tell the truth?
I can definitely get behind this! Emerson released a NY State Poll today, showing Hillary up by 18, but they use +19 women sample. I think they also used D+3 more than Obama got in 2012. The poll was D+21.4 vs D+18.4, which I believe is what the turnout looked like in 2012.
What makes polling suspect is that lots of supporters of both candidates are embarrassed to admit the support. I have not seen any bumper stickers for either candidate in the Phoenix area. I suspect that this same embarrassment leads people to hang up on pollsters.
The Trump supporters are shamed by the media nightly. And the Clinton supporter are shamed by their own consciences.
There are also people in the Democrat party, who have always voted Democrat, but they detest Hillary Clinton. They will not admit to anyone that they will be voting for the Republican nominee.
Now that there is some good news.
Wrong what? Most are tied or Trump is slightly ahead...
I’m not so sure the polls are that far off. After the GOP convention, Trump got a big bounce, and then after the DNC the lying criminal got a big bounce. This is what has happened in the past, so to me it appears the polls are operating as you would expect them to.
Likewise, Trump has been on point for a few weeks while the lying criminal has been mostly absent so the polls are tightening, as you would expect them to.
Now, it appears that some of the polls are over-sampling dems. On the other hand, the election will likely come down to results in a handful of states like OH, VA, PA, MI, FL, NV, etc, and the criminal’s team might be looking at relatively better results when the electoral college is taken into consideration. She sure is not acting like a candidate that’s in trouble. Other than the celebrity fund raisers, she seems to be relying on a “front porch” sort of strategy which, unless she’s truly ill, suggests confidence.
Here’s how it works: The media skews some polls and fabricates others. On election day, the DemoRATS pick up the ball and combine hacking, ballot-stuffing and massive illegal alien voting to produce a “result” that closely matches the phony polls.
Then the Democrats will say the election was stolen because the polls couldn’t possibly have been wrong.
Disregard the polls. They are always manipulated for a reason. When your candidate is up, they alter them to make your candidate look like he is losing ground, when he is actually winning.
The polls report what the numbers are. It’s just that the numbers don’t mean much. They are taken from the questions asked to about 1000 people, and then extrapolated to apply to the entire population of 350 million.
The methods do not guarantee that the numbers reflect the entire population accurately.
Hillary is sinking.
If the polls are wrong, Great!
If the polls are right, we have a lot of work to do.
GOTV!!!!