We can win this thing!
Hiroo-onoda 1974
Posted on 04/20/2016 11:04:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump no doubt had a big win in New York. He’s on track to claim nearly all of the state’s 98 delegates in a victory that saw him not only smash the 50 percent mark – which allowed him to gain extra delegates – but win nearly every region of the state.
But according to the widely respected Nate Silver, writing for his political website, FiveThirtyEight, Trump is still also on track to come up short at the convention. The main question is, will he get close enough to required 1,237 that he can maneuver his way over the top with uncommitted delegates, or do we go to a second ballot, in which case Ted Cruz is in good position to win.
Silver writes:
If Trump finishes with 90 delegates from New York and matches the panel’s projections in the remaining states, he’d eventually finish with 1,191 delegates — close enough to 1,237 that he might be able to get there with uncommitted delegates, especially uncommitted delegates from Pennsylvania . . .
I’m not sure we’ve learned as much about how Trump will perform outside the Northeast. It’s been a highly regional campaign so far, and Trump will probably still need to win both Indiana and California to clinch 1,237 without uncommitted delegates. If he loses both states, we’re probably headed for a multi-ballot convention, which would be trouble for Trump. If he splits Indiana and California, Trump will be right on a knife’s edge — that’s the case where the extra two or three dozen delegates he’ll pick up in the Northeast tonight and next week could be the most helpful to him.
Trump has been very smart to discipline his message. People already get that he’s a tough guy and would be a strong leader not cowed by the demands for political correctness. His main problem is that there are many who fear he might be, uh, too strong a leader, and one who hasn’t particularly thought the issues through. By cooling his rhetoric, Republicans may slowly forget Bad Donald and feel more comfortable voting for him.
And given that he toned it down considerably since losing Wisconsin two weeks ago, that might be part of what we saw in New York – in addition to hometown boy makes good and Texan denigrates New York Values and then asks for New York Votes.
The only one i pay attention to is 1237, if Trump earns it all’s fair in love and war, if not the delegate fight is on.
Cruz isn't that popular.
Cruz isn’t that popular.
Especially with the establishment!
What makes you think Trump winning the nomination will just automatically create unity in the party? Romney had over 50% of the votes in the primary. McCain had 47%. G.W. had 62% (2000). Dole had 58%. Reagan had 59% (1980).
Trump only has 37%. The party is less unified around Trump than any other GOP candidate in the modern primary process. The party is splintered already.
My gut feeling is that the large bulk of the primary voters will unify around either Cruz or Trump. They are running for the same audience. If a moderate like Kay-sick is nominated, then we risk losing as we did with Romnuts, McCrazy and DoleDole Bird.
Especially with anyone!
Especially with anyone!
No different than the way Trump rubs on me.
The difference is that some people actually like Trump.
Nate Silver’s “expert panel” also predicted a month ago that Trump would only win 71 delegates from NY...
Cruz's actions are juvenile. Gotta wonder if the jerk was ever toiled-trained.
Hey short sighted one, a contested convention means a fractured party which means the Democrat wins. No if and or Buts. Not a one of you myopic Cruz bots can explain how Cruz could win when he did so poorly in the all the swing states and with a fractured base?
So you get a Contested convention, then Cruz steals it, Then what? That’s right, People like you and the GOP party machine are NOT going to be enough to stop the destruction of America.
The Best chance we have to save America, capture the White Hut and protect down ticket is with the Popular guy who beings in new blood. Anything else is just plain stupid.
Here’s a Cruz fundraising letter that sums up this wackjob:
https://mobile.twitter.com/asamjulian/status/722987805811552256/photo/1
"But according to the widely respected Nate Silver, writing for his political website, FiveThirtyEight"
Thanks for the link.
OMG-—he is certifiable. No human in their right mind
being could ever compose so many lies in one letter.
“On the verge of victory,” he says. This could possibly be prosecuted for electronic fraud....for taking money under false pretenses.
Seriously, where do you come up with these sources? White house dossier and Louisiana hayride? Pretty soon you’ll be posting letters you wrote to your mother.
He’s is popular with the establishment. But he’s disliked. A lot. By many. Just read up on his Bush days.
NYC controls the votes in NY, which is a BLUE VERY LIBERAL STATE. Conservatives don’t have a chance there. Even Rudy Giuliani was a RINO nanny state mayor.
The commentator needs a race to drive traffic to web site.
Trump was ahead in Wisconsin 10 days before the primary, then the 24/7 ads started. Hillary, Bernie, Cruz, Kasich and every super pac had negative ads against Trump.....not each other. Talk radio was #never Trump all day, every day. Cruz had the Rino blessing of Walker, Ryan, Johnson and others. The constant barrage against Trump was relentless. Also, the primary was right after the Melania ad/Heidi tweet, Fields brutal assault etc. - the Imaginary War on Women. In the end Trump received 35% and Cruz couldn’t break 50%. But going into New York they wanted to boost Ted up with the “Cruz is Surging” meme. Yep surging right into 3rd place.
To take a loser candidate, whether it’s Cruz, Kasich, Jeb or an un-candidate like Ryan and put them as the nominee will be political suicide. There is no way to justify replacing the main candidate, who won the a dozen more states, million more votes and is maybe a handful shy with someone who didn’t even break 800. Down ticket races both nationally and locally would suffer tremendously. Millions would stay home. Criminal Clinton would be president. From that point forward, elections wouldn’t matter because of all the new demoCRAP voters. And congress and SCOTUS will sit idly by and do nothing.
The GOPe may be slimy, disgusting, unethical, crooked and much more that I cant print here, but they are not Crazy!
Trump is the nominee!
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