Posted on 03/29/2016 4:21:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump is most likely to win the GOP nomination. But Ted Cruz definitely has a path to victory if he can win key contests.
Trump's current delegate lead over Cruz and John Kasich (Trump — 739, Cruz — 465, Kasich — 143) is more apparent than real. At some point, Marco Rubio is likely to endorse Cruz and release his delegates. Since the Rubio campaign was conceived in the womb of the establishment's anti-Trump initiative, his delegates are likely to go to the Texan en masse, giving Cruz 631 delegates, only 108 behind Trump.
If Cruz wins Wisconsin, he will take most of its 42 votes. And, if on April 9, his candidates prevail at the Colorado delegate selection caucus (no presidential primary or caucus in that state), he will get the bulk of the state's 37 delegates. That should cut Trump's lead to less than one hundred — perhaps seventy or so.
The Wisconsin win, which would be Cruz's first victory in a major northeastern industrial state, shows that as Trump's popularity among women declines, Cruz is in a position to pick up key victories.
Cruz can expect to lose the April 19 New York primary (95), the next in line, but proportional rules may allow Cruz and Kasich to win a third of the delegates.
After New York, Cruz will be competitive and get his share of the delegates in most of the remaining states: Connecticut (28), Maryland (38), Rhode Island (19), Indiana (57) and New Mexico (24). He will likely pick up Nebraska's 36 and Montana's 27 in their winner-take-all format, but he may lose New Jersey's 51 and Delaware's 16 winner-take-all delegates....
(Excerpt) Read more at creators.com ...
No, they probably know that only 17 of PA's delegates are bound delegates, so it has less impact than RI and just a little more than Delaware.
Major Northeastern Industrial state?
This smacks of push-propaganda to me. Pushing whatever sound bites possible that can possibly sway voters towards a particular candidate.
Not implausible, but in the end, Cruz will have a tough time winning in the real Northeast, which puts him in a hole that he likely will never be able to climb out of.
Good news for Trump as Dick Morris never right.I
When did dickhead change his name to Richard?
So you are saying if Trump can't get to 1237 either, he should also drop out? Because that is increasing looking like a likely outcome.
“Me thinks thou art dreaming. Cruz is dead man walking.”
And in the general, Trump is dead man squawking.
He has no REALISTIC path to the nomination and he knows it!
I live in the northeast and didnt realize Wisconsin is in my region....
The above is from the article.
Could be.
Great stuff. Very clear
Yup, the Toe Sucker hisself!
Which, if standard convention applies, means if predicted by Dick Morris and posted on Free Republic, the OPPOSITE will happen.
I'm sure Cruz will do just as well in the Northeast as he did in the South.
However it shakes out between the two, we should be like Horton the elephant: “Faithful, 100 per cent.”
This is a critical election.
May lose NJ? Cruz won’t break 25% here if Kasich competes. In a two person race Trump will get north of 65%. Cruz is despised on the East Coast. He will get the fringe Lonegan kooks, but Trump will shellack him here and most everywhere else after Wisconsin, amd I’m not so sure Trump won’t win Wisconsin.
Why did writer write past first sentence?
I wonder if Cruz slept with Hillary too.
Reality check. Trump said Reagan talked a good game but couldn’t deliver. He had disdain for Reagan.
Pg 60-61 Art of the Deal (1987)
But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.
I think of Jimmy Carter. After he lost the election to Ronald Reagan, Carter came to see me in my office. He told me he was seeking contributions to the Jimmy Carter library. I asked how much he had in mind. And he said, “Donald I would be very appreciative if you contributed 5 million dollars.”
I was dumbfounded. I didn’t even answer him.
But that experience also taught me something. Until then, I never understood how Jimmy Carter became president. The answer is that as poorly qualified as he was for the job, Jimmy Carter had the nerve, the guts, the balls, to ask for something extraordinary. That ability above all helped him get elected president. But then, of course, the American people caught on pretty quickly that Carter couldn’t do the job, and he lost in a landslide when he ran for reelection.
Ronald Reagan is another example. He is so smooth and so effective a performer that he completely won over the American people. Only now, nearly seven years later, are people beginning to question whether there’s anything beneath that smile.
I see the same thing in my business, which is full of people who talk a good game but don’t deliver
About 99% of the pronouncements of the Dick Morris political crystal ball become the death wish for the candidate he reports on and predicts for.
Judging from past experience with DM reverse barometer political prognostications, Cruz may be toast.
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