Posted on 03/18/2016 3:30:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
From the last Morning Jolt of the week:
Is Ted Cruz Going to Be Able to Pull This Off? Right now, as a #NeverTrump guy, I'm rooting hard for Ted Cruz. We haven't seen any polls conducted after Rubio's departure from the race - either in key upcoming states or nationally - so we don't have a good sense of whether anti-Trump Republicans are coalescing around him. Tuesday Arizona holds its primary and Utah holds its caucus. At first glance, those are natural Cruz states, right?
[Cue ominous music.]
Notice that we've had two polls of Arizona Republicans - you know, not too far from Texas* - and Trump's well ahead of Cruz in both. The two polls were conducted before Rubio dropped out, so maybe Rubio's 10 to 12 percent will shift to Cruz and help the Texas senator make up the deficit of... 12-14 points.
Uh-oh.
The last Utah poll was in mid-February, and had Rubio 24, Cruz 22, Trump 18. Caucuses usually have low turnout, but the Utah one may turn out quite different:
For its presidential preference caucus next week, the Beehive State's Republican Party will allow any Utahn outside or inside the state to vote online. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation.
"We're stepping out on the national stage in a way we never have before," Bryan J. Smith, the executive director of the Utah Republican Party, said during a recent Utah caucus preparatory meeting. "This time it matters in more ways than you think."
The Utah Republican Party said its new method of voting will mainly help families, workers, missionaries and military workers throughout the world, who can't be in town for voting. It also may help Utah mothers, who find themselves swamped with child care and work.
A week from now, if Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah... do people begin to doubt whether Cruz can win a one-on-one race against Trump? Or do anti-Trump Republicans begin to really turn their ire against John Kasich for sticking around?
Politico reports, "Marco Rubio is close to endorsing Ted Cruz, but the two proud senators -- and recent fierce rivals -- have some details to work out first. Cruz has to ask for the Rubio's endorsement, and both sides need to decide that it will make a difference, according to sources familiar with the thinking of both senators."
If you're Cruz, why wouldn't you ask?
Meanwhile, one more ominous note for the #NeverTrump forces. According to the Associated Press count, Trump has 678 delegates, and needs 1,237. He's 559 delegates away from winning the nomination, and 1,059 remain. Can Trump win 53 percent of the remaining delegates?
Even if you feel confident in saying "no, Trump won't win that many delegates" - and yeah, that's a high bar to clear going forward - so far Trump has won about 46 percent of the delegates available so far. (He's done so with 37 percent of the votes cast in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.) Assume Trump maintains his current level of support throughout the rest of the process, and he'll get 46 percent of the remaining 1,059 delegates. That gives him 492 more delegates.
Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates, just 67 short of what he needs. (It's easy to picture Trump's first phone call going to John Kasich, currently sitting there with 144 delegates.) Yes, you might hear talk or calls for a Cruz-Rubio ticket, but Trump will argue, with justification, he's won 94 percent of what was needed to be the nominee.
Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?
* Rule one: Look at a map before writing about which states are next to each other. Rule two: Don't write sentences like this before coffee.
The irony is that Kasich dropping out would give Trump Ohios delegates. So he’s actually doing Cruz a service by sticking around. Its really a no win situation for Cruz. He’s not going to get the +80% of delegates he needs to win the nomination and there is no way if the race is contested that the RNC would go Cruz instead of Trump if Trump is ahead. I mean if you are going to blow up the party you aren’t going to do it to lift up Cruz. Right now a vote for Cruz or Kasich is a vote for a contested convention and a vote for Hillary because only a fool who wants to spoil everything would want a contested convention.
You mad bro? Cruz is in a snuggle fest with Graham and Mittens now and that really pisses you off. At least the Canadian thanked them for their ‘service’.
Rubio was right
Kasich doesn’t to pose all that much of a threat to anyone does he?
I mean he has a tiny few delegates, so if Cruz can take TRUMP, he needs to friggin’ get on with it and stop with the firewall in the South, he’s gonna win this and gonna win that, and lost his trousers in the South, and has no constituency in the North. They don’t but barely know his name.
It doesn’t look AS IF Cruz is selling out, Cruz IS selling out plain and simple!!! He is the biggest LYING SOB!!! He has betrayed his supporters plain and simple, would have voted Cruz if nominated NO MORE!!!! this is the GOP-e telling us AGAIN we have no where else to go, GOP-e knows damn good and well Cruz CAN NOT win the general and WILL deliver Hillary to us they don’t give a damn!!! Now that Cruz is owned by GOP-e that WALL will NEVER be built!!!!
Of course he was right and everytime Teddy lifts his dress for the establishment his backers in here get very distressed.
I don’t care if he gets along with anyone or not, but when He’s made his entire case on his reputation of never compromising his principles, then how can Cruz accept endorsements and money from all kinds of people he doesn’t agree with on principles? Immigration is a perfect example since the bitter differences between Rubio and Cruz are well known. How much can Cruz get away with before even his most ardent supporters have to recognize the hypocrisy?
Trump doesn’t have this problem, since he has not made his campaign all about being dogmatic and ideological.
TRUMP “ain’t” no Dewhurst.
Cruz is going to need the KISS-MY-RING crowd to ever have a prayer for getting the popular vote victory, so he is going for the Establishment powered trick victory, at convention.
D E S P E R A T E cRUSE
Perhaps Ted is counting on the crossover BLM vote to push him over the finish. At this point Ted will lay down with any dogs that come his way.
They damn sure are now
Cruz has to win the majority of delegates in seven more states
And 83-87% of delegates
20 primaries left
Unlikely...highly
Long shot to deprive Trump for contested convention as well
But feel free
With the intellectual content of many of these posts its starting to look like Reddit around here.
After Arizona and Utah, there is Wisconsin on April 5th, NY on April 19, and April 26th there is Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Indiana is on May 3rd.
Cruz may win Utah, he may do well, but still lose, Wisconsin. Trump is leading by 50 percentage points in NY, and he’ll probably sweep all the races on April 26th. If that happens, Trump could end up with 342 more delegates, giving him 1,020.
If Trump gets that big winning streak, few people are going to bother voting for Cruz, and the remaining contests will be completely dominated by Trump. That would give Trump approximately 1,334 delegates.
Hello no! He lost when he sold out and becomes even less of a factor with each establishment endorsement. This Romney one will be the kiss of death.
I don’t expect anything but an attack from you but I’ll be proven right when Trump hits 1237... It’s all but assured now.
YOU KEEP WHAT YOU KILL!
LOLOL!!!
This election is ALL about TRUMP. Anyone else but TRUMP and the nominee would already be declared.
Cruz and the boys want to play games with the popular vote, dismiss it, and inject the Establishment power onto the Convention floor, all this drama just to drag ol’ Cruz over the damn line.
Next comes the GANG OF EIGHT endorsing their old pal, Ted.
LOL!!
Ted is the spoiler to keep Trump under the winning majority. Then the bosses will dump him in the trash and pound down the lid.
He serves no purpose other than that. If he was a man he should drop out now and assure Trump the win.
You folks need to keep that little detail in mind while you do your fancy war dance:)
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