Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump

FiveThirtyEight ^ | March 10, 2016 | Nate Silver

[2ndDivisionVet]

The good news for the Republican "establishment" is that there's a man who might be able to stop Donald Trump. The bad news is that it's Ted Cruz, someone they may dislike almost as much.

Cruz, who won Idaho on Tuesday while finishing second to Trump in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, is within striking distance of Trump. So far, 29 percent of Republican primary voters have voted for Cruz as compared with 35 percent for Trump. Meanwhile, Cruz trails Trump by 100 delegates: not a trivial gap, although only one more than the 99 at stake in winner-take-all Florida next Tuesday.

The problem for Cruz is that Florida and the rest of the calendar probably aren't as favorable to him as the states that have voted so far. (Florida looks like a Trump state as Marco Rubio loses ground.) But Cruz does have a few things going for him. He's tended to outperform his polling almost everywhere. He's won states in all four major regions of the country. And he potentially stands to gain if Rubio and perhaps John Kasich drop out.

The exit polls in Michigan and Mississippi asked voters who they'd pick in a two-way race between Trump and Cruz, also giving them the option to say they'd sit out the race. Among Rubio voters, on average between the two states, about 75 percent said they'd still vote in a Trump-Cruz race, and of those, 80 percent would prefer Cruz to Trump. Kasich voters were somewhat more equivocal; 55 percent said they'd still vote, and of those, two-thirds would go to Cruz over Trump. Although this is the first time the exit polls have asked about one-on-one matchups, the results are consistent with national polls showing Trump losing ground as the field winnows....

[The Iceman Cometh]

Did you mean to insult yourself?

Not sure. I support Donald Trump and according to Cruz, I'm an idiot. I realize I only have a Bachelor's Degree with a near perfect GPA but I guess I would lack the ability to find my local polling place and vote for Cruz. /sarc

Vote Cruz! - Elitist Snobs Unite!

[TontoKowalski]

A nice debating point, but one that is out of touch with reality.

Trump's delivery of that line was done with a wink, and a shared laugh with his supporters at the expense of the know-it-all media and pundit classes.

Every guy who has swung a hammer or turned a wrench, every woman who toils away in relative obscurity but is secretly the brains that holds the company together, every person who works hard trying to satisfy or cover for a better educated but inept middle manager... they got it.

So, you can award yourself a point in a high school debate, and Trump will continue to gather the votes of those he was speaking to.

And we'll see who comes out on top.

[GoKnow]

Mr. Silver’s fast-fading glory.

[jjotto]

As time passes, Nate Silver will be revealed as simply having gotten lucky in 2012, when the election coincided with his own hopes and prejudices.

It’s true that it’s almost impossible for Cruz to win, but it is possible for Trump to lose. Later states may see themselves as making an up-or-down referendum on Trump. He is still likely to win, but it is certainly possible that later states would choose not to endorse Trump in such a way.

[Agamemnon]

I wonder if my Bachelor's Degree from Coastal Carolina University is good enough for Ted Cruz?

I wouldn't know. Why don't you ask him yourself?

I began my college career at North Greenville College in Tigerville, SC and finished up my grad work at New York Medical College. I've never heard of Coastal Carolina College but where one starts their education is no predictor of where they will finish necessarily.

It was Donald Trump who said he loves the poorly educated. One may fairly surmise then that "poorly educated" characterizes his voters and acolytes. If that's not you, and Trump by your own admission is wrong on this point, perhaps you should write the man and correct him, if you believe you are something different than a poorly educated voter.

You need to stop projecting onto Cruz what Trump clearly directed at his own supporters, which at this point appears to include yourself.

FReegards!

[Agamemnon]

I support Donald Trump and according to Cruz, I'm an idiot.

Incorrect. Trump called you "poorly educated," and Cruz, effectively buttressing what Trump said, called you "low information."

Sometimes opposing candidates can actually agree on something - even if it happens to be at the expense of Trump's own supporters.

BTW how did Trump do out there in Idaho the other night?

FReegards!

[Agamemnon]

Trump's delivery of that line was done with a wink, and a shared laugh with his supporters at the expense of the know-it-all media and pundit classes.

Keep telling yourself that all you want.

He was laughing AT you.

Every guy who has swung a hammer or turned a wrench, every woman who toils away in relative obscurity but is secretly the brains that holds the company together, every person who works hard trying to satisfy or cover for a better educated but inept middle manager... they got it.

You should remember all that blather the next time he brags about his Wharton MBA.

FReegards!

[mrsmith]

Yeah, if the GOPe had quit fighting Cruz before SC, Cruz would have been able to follow his original plan and be sitting pretty now.
Without winning Ohio or Fla I don’t see how he can succeed now.

The GOPe is responsible for Cruz’s predicament, not Trump.
They worked hard to defeat him, it was the number goal from the start.

Now they can do what Trump tell them to.

[The Iceman Cometh]

BTW how did Trump do out there in Idaho the other night?

In Idaho, Mormons went with Cruz. Jack Mormons went with Trump.

[The Iceman Cometh]

Why don't you ask him yourself?

I wouldn't be able to talk to Cruz. He charges too much for access.

[Agamemnon]

I wouldn't be able to talk to Cruz. He charges too much for access.

Really? What did he try to charge you the last time you tried to gain access?

FReegards!

[gg188]

I would not put ANY dirty trick past Tricky Teddy, the Liar.

The Elite RNC Establishment can and may rewrite their rules even if Trump has a majority on the first ballot. It Trump only goes in with a plurality, look for the Establishment to flip more than enough delegates to get Cruz in (or Mitt or Ryan, but their guy is Cruz if they can pull it off. He's been their stealth Establishment candidate for four years.)

[Agamemnon]

Jack Mormons went with Trump.

It must pain you to acknowledge the fact that Cruz beat Trump in your home state of Idaho.

I happen to know there are more than Mormons in Idaho though.

Are you saying that you are a "Jack Mormon"?

FReegards!

[The Iceman Cometh]

It must pain you to acknowledge the fact that Cruz beat Trump in your home state of Idaho.

Not shocking at all. Those that follow a false religion follow a false prophet.

[Agamemnon]

Not shocking at all. Those that follow a false religion follow a false prophet

I didn't ask whether you were shocked by Cruz's win, but when I rhetorically asked you how Trump did in Idaho, all you could bring yourself to do was deflect to some nonsense about Mormons.

It was great fun to behold you standing there with the egg all over your face as recalled all the other equally nonsensical posts you have made and continue to make during this primary season.

Whatever effort you exerted to obtain it, one suspects that your degree from Carolina Coast at the very least qualifies you to be named among Trump's other "poorly educated" voters at this point.

Just remember it was Trump who was the guy mocking your level of education.

After all what competently educated person in their right mind can possibly believe that a guy who continues to sing the praises of Planned Parenthood is at the same time truthfully "anti-abortion?"

Like the Obama voter, you'll just continue to project onto Trump everything you want him to be without Trump ever having to have credibly demonstrated that he was whatever you imagined him to be.

FReegards!

[dforest]

He has been missing some of late. Unlike 2012 when he knew the outcome prior to the election.

[The Iceman Cometh]

After all what competently educated person in their right mind can possibly believe that a guy

What you may have a tough time understanding is that I trust Donald Trump, warts and all, more than I trust Ted Cruz who is just another lifetime politician who will say or do whatever necessary to obtain power.

I'd expect a President Cruz would turn into every other 'conservative messiah' that has failed before him.

With $20 trillion in debt and a country invaded from the South, I have no faith in political insiders. Cruz has flipped on issues enough to only earn my fallback option as we can't afford Hillary Clinton.

[stockpirate]

Not after what Cruz just said, Trump cause of violence at his rally.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Link?

[Jay Thomas]

Once again:

“We won with young. We won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated. We’re the smartest people, we’re the most loyal people, and you know what I’m happy about? Because I’ve been saying it for a long time. 46% were the Hispanics—46%, number one with Hispanics. I’m really happy about that.

So I’m very proud of you, this is an amazing night. I love the country, I love the country. “
http://reason.com/blog/2016/02/24/trump-i-love-the-poorly-educated-so-shou