Posted on 03/09/2016 2:52:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I have performed some math showing Polls versus Results
Ted Cruz has been dominating the polls recently. Every time the polls say he is going to perform X, he outdoes them with two minor exceptions.
(GRAPH-AT-LINK)
As seen in the graphic above Ted Cruz has been outdoing the Republican Polls by 15% or higher on average. In two cases we could not identify how much higher because of lack of Polls, these are Hawaii and Maine. However an examination of his wins shows either an extreme bias in the polls, or that the vote is always breaking for one candidate when it comes time to pull the lever.
An example of some of the differences, these are how much higher Ted Cruz did in actual results above the polls (RCP Average, last month or so only used)
Idaho 26.40%
Mississippi 19.30%
Kansas 19.20%
Kentucky 16.70%
Oklahoma 14.10%
Alaska 12.40%
Louisiana 10.10%
I would say it is probably fair that if it was polled Maine would be in that list as well.
In a previous effort I identified that 33% of Democrats in S. Carolina voted in the Republican Primary. This trend in Open Primaries has continued unabated by all appearances. Ted Cruz continues to dominate in closed Primaries after all....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
I looked at the data he claims to have used, and:
(1) There is something there, as we all have discussed for a while, and
(2) there isn’t as much there as he is implying.
Cruz has done well, better than expected and better than any other non-Trump candidate. However, Trump (liberal lurkers, you might want to read this a few times until you understand) has done better than Cruz in both voting and delegates. That’s the past, and I assume we all more or less agree on those facts.
What about projecting forward? The past with a large number of candidates is not a terribly good basis for projecting forward to campaigns with what will presumably be 3 and then 2 candidates. Cruz is my first choice, but I am not willing to assume that he will continue carrying 15% more than predicted under the new conditions.
“The only one we CANNOT declare a winner is Trump, in first place.”
One cannot declare a winner until such time as one received a majority of the votes.
So far, that has not happened, although Trump is ahead.
I’d say that the author was a bit dicey predicting a Cruz win at the end, but it is one analysis that has some merit.
More likely Trump though.
My thoughts exactly on the lack of social conservatism by Trump.
This country needs another President like the current one like a hole in the head (Obama: “I don’t want my daughters to be punished with a baby if they make a mistake”).
We will be pushed even further into immorality by electing a promoter of gambling vices, thrice married as President.
“Cruz is establishment”
That is so obvious during the past four years and the reason why so many of his fellow Republicans embrace him, right?(sarc)
“Latest poll via CNN: Trump 40%, Rubio’s 24%, Cruz 19%, Kasich 5%”
Go read post #53 carefully.
Figures don’t lie, you know...
Did you know that in Canada a Red Ribbon is First place, the blue ribbon is second place?
They’re embracing him now. Don’t confuse personally disliking the guy with not being establishment. They PERSONALLY don’t like him but he is clearly establishment.
#97 The response typical of any one that Dare Question The integrity of Royal Trump
Fact is Donald Bragged about his athletic Abilities in School but when the draft can about he suddenly turned into Hop along Donnie.
You decided to bring up Cruz as a defense.....it was really a weak attempt at deflection.
Bwahahahaha You going back to h.s. and college to get quotes on Cruz?
Another WEAK attempt to Smear a Career Constitutional Scholar.
Let’s go back to 2008 or 2012 When hop along Donnie was donating to the Hillary for President or when hop along was childing Romney for being mean to the Hispanics for his immigration policy.
Oh no, let’s use college quotes... Most likely a flippant answer to some q. & a. session.
How about posting a few of Hop along Donnie and the Rats?
Like his opinion of Obama while in Office?
How about his comments about Hillary as S.O.S?
Weak really. At this point it is more like lame excuses because there are no good answers for Hop A Long Donnie.
One can say that is the same type of embrace they are giving to Trump. Sorta a gotcha from behind.
Ah! I see the Cruz lemon aide stand is open for business again.
Name It And Claim It Evangelism.
Send money now.
I think you’re doing just fine and keeping up being nasty
Iowa was a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...
SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...
OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote
VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up 23 on Feb 24)
TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote
VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote
Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote
Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)
KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote
ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote
MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote
An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's support crumbles by double digits.
Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual votes as poll votes and impressive rallies... and most polls have him behind Hillary head-to-head (most recently: Trump down 8 to Hillary, 52-44, Cruz up 1, 49-48 - March 1 CNN poll), or up only 1... and if he drops 6-12 pts at voting time, as he seems to be doing in half of the states so far, Trump is in deep trouble.
(I expect the usual Trump folks here to dismiss all of this with a single useless dismissal, of course... my favorite so far has been "you have too much time on your hands", as if that changes a single fact posted.)
Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump underperforms the polling, and by significant numbers. (Yes, he has beaten a few polls, but only once by more than the 2-3 point margin of error.)
Yeh Teddy really surged last night. LOL!
Trump has no hands feeding him.
Well I’m sure Cruz will really surge now as nothing screams good judgement like hiring Neil Bush a disgraced banking criminal to work on your campaign finances. LOL!
“He won’t bite the hand that feeds him.”
YOu better go back and look at his record. He has been fighting the Senate since he joined, and undermining the spineless House leadership as well.
Are you attempting to say that NO ONE who is currently in government can qualify as being non-establishment?
Someone who has spent their entire working life in politics is establishment. That is Ted Cruz.
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