Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron
A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.
The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president, Norpoth said, if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.
Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.
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His model must not properly account for the number of dead people that vote every four years.
HAHA The computer model was not told about dead people voting in Chicago, which placed Illinois in JFK win column. That was enough to give JFK electoral win in 1960.