I believe Trump is still ahead by 12 to 15 points, but I also believe that there is some trending toward the gap narrowing a bit in internal polling.
Trump’s big problem is that if Cruz ends up close to him and neither Bush nor Rubio is as close to Cruz as Cruz is to Trump, he may find himself in a two-way race. Trump needs to keep at least a three-way race going to win by a plurality.
If it’s a two-way race, his road to the nomination becomes much more difficult.
Wow! A Trump guy who is honest and objective. I agree with most of what you said. I think the margin is somewhere at about 10% but has closed in the last few days and the trend is making it closer. I agree with you that a three way race favors Trump, while a two way race tends to favor Cruz. I also think that those states that are “open” primaries tend to favor Trump while the “closed” one favor Cruz. It is also possible, however, that a three way might lead to a contested convention, where both Cruz and Trump might get cheated!
I will disagree with you in that I think that the trend could move all the way into a Cruz win, which would be a disaster for Trump.
BTW, I think some of my fellow Cruisers have been unrealistic too, so hope you didn’t take offense at what I said at the beginning.