“With 50 million dollars, (probably a third of what he needs to be competitive,) Cruz’s goal must be to catch fire before Florida, AND WIN PRIMARIES. If he can’t, he should drop out and endorse the highest-polling conservative.”
Florida is not nearly as big a factor this time around given the schedule (as it stands now):
February
Monday, February 1: Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, February 9: New Hampshire
Saturday, February 20: South Carolina
Tuesday February 23: Nevada caucuses
March
Tuesday, March 1: Arkansas,[56] Colorado caucuses (pending legislation exists however);[57] Massachusetts; Oklahoma; Tennessee; Texas; Vermont; Virginia; North Carolina
Saturday, March 5: Louisiana
Tuesday, March 8: Alabama; Hawaii caucuses; Idaho;[58] Mississippi; Michigan
Sunday, March 13: Puerto Rico (the last contest in 2016 required to be proportional.[59])
Tuesday, March 15: Illinois; Missouri; Florida; Ohio[60]
There are LOTS of primaries before Florida, including Texas, which he should win. You are right though, if he hasn’t notched at least a win or two by the time they get to Florida on March 15, he will have a real uphill climb.
By Mar 15, or even Mar 1, the race maybe over. By Mar. 15 there will be only
about 40% of the delegates left to be chosen.
Here’s a good website with info in various configurerations.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/wddaa.phtml
February
Monday, February 1: Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, February 9: New Hampshire
Saturday, February 20: South Carolina
Tuesday February 23: Nevada caucuses
March
Tuesday, March 1: Arkansas,[56] Colorado caucuses (pending legislation exists however);[57] Massachusetts; Oklahoma; Tennessee; Texas; Vermont; Virginia; North Carolina
My post was using 2012 information, (after Romney won Florida the race was over.)
My post should be amended appropriately:
Looks like this time around Texas is the first early prize. So, with this new info,
Cruz should spend his 50 million to win primaries until March 1st, if he isn’t winning by then, if he loses Texas, he should drop out.
Cruz should focus on South Carolina, Iowa, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas.
He should try to place top three in New Hampshire.
MUST WIN: South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma.
He should spend it all before March 1st. His goal must be to win, not to “hang in there” losing every primary like a troll.