Southern States Key to 2016

NewsMax ^ | May 14, 2015 | Matt Towery

[2ndDivisionVet]

In recent presidential primary cycles, the influence of Southern states — with the exception of Florida, whose "Southern status" is perhaps more locational than anything else — has been minimal.

While pundits like to say that GOP presidential nominees have relied heavily on a "red state" electorate based in the South, that same base has had little to say in determining the nominee. After all, neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney had much in common with the region.

Georgia's Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp sensed that voter turnout intensity in the region could be stronger in November 2016 if voters in the South actually got to know and help decide the nominee for president. Over the past year, he has worked diligently to try to make that happen.

Kemp has been pushing the concept of a so-called "SEC primary," named after the college football's powerful Southeastern Conference, to be held on March 1 of next year. He has worked to convince his colleagues in other Southern states to lobby their legislatures and governors to "join the team." And it appears this new political "conference" is taking shape.

Of course, both the Republican and Democratic Parties will allow the traditional states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to hold their contests, in that order, prior to March. Any other state that dives in before that will be penalized harshly....

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

The following states are key IMHO:

1) OH
2) FL
3) VA
4) CO
5) NV
6) IA
7) NH
8) NM
9) NC

In order for the GOP to win, it must run the tables on all of the swing states.

With respects to the blue states, the Dems seemed to have adopted the Brezhnev Doctrine: What’s mine is mine. What’s yours is negotiable.

[Zathras]

Add WI to the list but I agree.

[DoodleDawg]

Add WI to the list but I agree.

Wisconsin will go Democrat.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

WI so far as proven to be solid blue in presidential elections. The last time WI voted GOP in a presidential election: 1984.

The Dems would clearly view this state as part of their inviolable preserve under the Brezhnev Doctrine.

[Din Maker]

This time, Clinton must recapture her husband’s immense popularity in the African-American community.
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I’ve said this before... I say it again: Blacks will NOT turn out in 2016 like they did in ‘08 and ‘12. They’ve had their Black President. The new has worn off and the novelty is gone. I’m thinking the Black turn-out in 2016 will be at least 5 percentage points less than the two elections prior. ALSO..........WHAT IF............

What if the dislike between Obama and the Clintons intensified and his disdain for Hillary was well known in the Black Community? I guarantee you, if that happened, she would not be able to count on a big vote from that demographic. Comments anyone?

[Din Maker]

I’m not even sure WI would go GOP even if Scott Walker was the nominee.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Good point.

WI did not vote for the Romney-Ryan ticket.

[DoodleDawg]

I’m not even sure WI would go GOP even if Scott Walker was the nominee.

Paul Ryan was on the ballot in 2012 and Obama carried the state by 7 points.

Everybody talks about Walker winning three elections as proof positive how popular he is and how he's sure to win the state if he's heading the ticket. Well in those three elections I believe the highest vote turnout total was about 2.2 million. In 2012 the voter turnout was 3.03 million. Democrats in the state turn out for presidential elections more than mid-term elections, and Walker benefitted from that. If Walker heads the ticket in 2016 then there is every chance he won't carry his home state.