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Debates, Not Money Will Winnow GOP Field
Commentary Magazine ^ | May 4, 2015 | Jonathan S. Tobin

Posted on 05/04/2015 5:11:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

This is the week when an already crowded Republican presidential field really starts to fill up. One by Mike Huckabee will soon follow today’s announcements by Dr. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. Before long they will be joined by Governor Scott Walker and eventually as many as 20 candidates will be running for the GOP nomination. Not all of them are likely to be serious possibilities and the members of this week’s trio are all assumed to be long shots. But the cavalry charge of candidates heading to Iowa and New Hampshire creates a situation that renders moot much of the commentary we’ve been hearing about the race in the last six months. It’s no good talking about Jeb Bush or even Walker as frontrunners in a contest in which no one can boast of even 20 percent of the support of Republican voters and which most of those jumping in can raise enough money to stay in until the early states vote. For all of the necessary focus on who is doing the best at raising funds, it will be the debates and not the affections of big donors that will winnow this group down to the real contenders that will battle for the nomination next spring.

With no votes to count and polls being of little use in gauging interest in a plethora of candidates who are not yet household names, it’s understandable that most of the reporting on the GOP contest has centered on the question of who is raising the most money. That was the whole point of Jeb Bush’s decision to jump in early last December when he embarked on a “shock and awe” campaign intended to make it clear to possible challengers that they wouldn’t have a chance to compete with him in fundraising. Bush’s effort was largely successful. In fact, it played a significant role in convincing Mitt Romney not to try again in spite of what appeared to be a clear inclination on his part to make a third attempt at the presidency. But while Bush did lock up the lion’s share of big Republican donors, he soon discovered that the universe of contributors to GOP presidential candidates is bigger than he thought. After Bush’s initial push, there were still more than enough such givers to fund Walker as well as others such as Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

Nor, despite mainstream media coverage that makes it appear that the Koch Brothers and/or Sheldon Adelson will be Republican kingmakers, will the ultimate destination of the money currently in their pockets decide things.

That is where the similarities and the differences between the 2012 and 2016 races come into play.

There were also a lot of possible candidates thinking about the GOP nomination this time four years ago. But the reason why Mitt Romney ultimately cruised to victory is that most where neither serious nor able to raise enough money to make it to the first votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, let alone beyond that point. That is not the case this year both in terms of the level of the candidates as well as their ability to attract donors. This time, even the potential outliers like Carson or Huckabee seem to have a lot more on the ball and will probably survive until next winter when the voting starts.

And that is why the debates — the factor that was most important in helping to shape the 2012 race — may again be decisive. As Bush learned, money may be necessary to run a credible enough but in such a crowded field, it simply isn’t possible to raise enough to dominate and or knock off so many varied opponents. In a contest with no true frontrunner, it will be the debates that will define the candidates for the voting public.

In the aftermath of the 2012 election cycle, Republicans agreed that there were too many debates in the fall/winter of 2011-12. Indeed, the debates began to resemble a reality show more than Lincoln and Douglas. But even with the trimmed down schedule now planned, there will be no way for any of the contenders to make a splash without doing well on the debate stage. Just as important, the debates will be the crucible during which gaffes and unpreparedness will sink candidates faster than the displeasure of a large donor.

That’s why all talk of framing the race must be predicated on the notion that it won’t really begin until August 15 when the first such debate takes place in Cleveland and is broadcast by Fox News. Until then, the field will grow no matter how much or how little any of the would-be frontrunners take in from wealthy friends.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016debates; 2016gopprimary; cruz; elections; gop; huckabee; scottwalker; tedcruz; tobin
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To: EvilCapitalist

I garauntee Cruz would win that one.


21 posted on 05/04/2015 6:56:43 PM PDT by Romans Nine
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To: napscoordinator

Yep, it’s definitely going to be a circus trying to wean them out. I keep hoping some will drop out early, but could we be that lucky?


22 posted on 05/04/2015 7:02:39 PM PDT by conservativejoy (We Can Elect Ted Cruz! Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God!)
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To: EvilCapitalist

If I had to guess who Ted Nugent likes, I’d bet he’s a Cruz guy.


23 posted on 05/04/2015 7:06:48 PM PDT by conservativejoy (We Can Elect Ted Cruz! Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God!)
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To: conservativejoy
.


Folks for Ted Cruz 2016 ...

Do we really want to win the White House (Ted Cruz) in 2016 ?


We HAVE to operate DIFFERENTLY than in 2012.


Have "you" contacted and volunteered at www.tedcruz.org ?

DO IT.


Have you organized your first state / city / county "Ted Cruz Action Team" meeting ?

DO IT.



SO many times we wait for the "other guy" to get it done.

I have been lazy that way myself.

NOT THIS TIME.



Political Order of the Day: "Engage the Enemy"

 photo Ted-Cruz-Rally--2015-07-18--C_zpsbt5xfpqh.jpg
24 posted on 05/05/2015 3:52:02 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Ted-Cruz-2016 @ Engineering-Excellence.US)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Until such time as Cruz wipes the floor with all those who debate him, we all need to keep track of his donation link...https://donate.tedcruz.org/


25 posted on 05/05/2015 4:12:28 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: Patton@Bastogne

Thanks for the revelie call to action this morning. I have voluteered, but things are unfolding slowly here in Tennessee. I wish I had some prior experience and felt I could take on more responsibility. Unfortunately, due to the Hatch act, this is the first year I’ve ever been able to work on a political campaign. What’s the organization like where you are? I don’t know where to begin.


26 posted on 05/05/2015 6:22:40 AM PDT by conservativejoy (We Can Elect Ted Cruz! Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God!)
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To: trebb

Don’t forget that 2nd Division Vet is a bundler for Cruz. See his tagline to make a donation.


27 posted on 05/05/2015 6:24:46 AM PDT by conservativejoy (We Can Elect Ted Cruz! Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God!)
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To: conservativejoy; bray

FReeper bray has had some luck in liberal OR and I believe has a booklet - he may be able to give you some pointers that can help your efforts.


28 posted on 05/05/2015 7:38:24 AM PDT by Seattle Conservative (God Bless and protect our troops)
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To: Seattle Conservative

So, how are things going in Oregon, Bray? Anything you can suggest to help me get started here in Tennessee? Your suggestions would be greatly appreciated.


29 posted on 05/05/2015 8:35:57 AM PDT by conservativejoy (We Can Elect Ted Cruz! Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God!)
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To: JRandomFreeper; Diogenesis

” There are a lot here on FR that have an agenda to get rid of Cruz as well.”

I’m certain Rove & Co will sign up maybe 50 moles within a few months. Hopefully, they won’t be very shrewd, and we can get them ZOTTED.

The easy ones will be....

Concern Trolls

Pro-Jeb


30 posted on 05/05/2015 10:06:09 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: conservativejoy
Thanks - I'm aware of his involvement and used his tagline with the URL to Cruz's donation site as a "excuse" to save the link for easy access and personal use.

I also use my posts to him as a reminder to others who read them that we need to keep funds flowing to Cruz. I'm pretty sure he is aware of my intent and doesn't read much into my other-directed comments that appear in the posts.

I save the snide stuff for those that I deem worthy of them (pot-stirring, etc.) with the knowledge that many will be reminded of my "avocation' as a pot-stirrer to keep everyone's juices flowing (sometimes the juices are bile coming my way, but my skin is thick).

31 posted on 05/05/2015 11:48:11 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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