Posted on 03/27/2015 9:49:09 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
When Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) launched his U.S. Senate bid, he was the preferred choice of a mere 3 percent of Texas Republican primary voters in a field of a half-dozen credible candidates. Chief among his rivals was a powerful three-term lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, who possessed a net worth of $200 million, enjoyed the near-unanimous support of the Texas GOP establishment and began the 2012 election cycle with a commanding lead in the polls. A year-and-a-half later, Cruz soundly defeated Dewhurst in a primary runoff with 57 percent of the vote and was on his way to the U.S. Senate.
One thing 2012 taught us in Texas is that one should never underestimate Ted Cruz. But, that said, there are several noteworthy differences between the dynamics of Cruz's 2012 Senate and 2016 presidential campaigns.
In the 2012 U.S. Senate contest, Dewhurst pursued a "Rose Garden strategy" that left the door wide open for Cruz to obtain the support of a lion's share of the influential Tea Party and social conservative activists who play an outsized role in Texas's low turnout Republican primaries (e.g., 6 percent of the voting-age population cast a ballot in the 2012 runoff). In his current presidential run, Cruz will face fierce competition for the movement conservative and social conservative vote from a plethora of talented and highly motivated candidates.
Cruz had more than 18 months between his campaign launch in January 2011 and the July 2012 runoff to attend hundreds of events hosted by conservative groups throughout the state. While it may be possible for Cruz to partially replicate this grassroots strategy in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada (combined, their population is less than half of the Lone Star State's), such an approach will not be feasible in the subsequent 50-plus contests.
William F. Buckley's "Buckley Rule" states Republicans should nominate the most conservative candidate available as long as he or she is viable/electable. In Texas, Republican candidates have won 121-straight statewide elections, with the last GOP defeat occurring more than 20 years ago, in 1994. Today, whomever the Texas GOP nominates for statewide office is by definition electable. General election viability was therefore not even a remote concern for Texas Republican primary voters in 2012. It will, however, be a concern for many of the nation's Republican presidential primary and caucus voters in 2016. As part of their voting decision, they will take into account how the different Republican nominees are likely to fare in pivotal battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Iowa, where the winner of the November 2016 presidential election will be decided. These voters are well aware that it's tough to imagine a scenario where, for instance, the Republican candidate loses in Florida and Ohio but still manages to garner a majority in the Electoral College.
Cruz would not be running for president if he did not see a path to victory, however long and narrow it may be. Certainly back in 2011, Cruz was one of the few who could envision such a path, and, with the assistance of a skilled and innovative campaign team, followed it to perfection over 18 arduous months. But today, once again Cruz finds himself labeled a long shot, and we'll have to wait about a year or so to know if the pundits who once again discount his prospects are once again wrong.
However, under the most likely scenario — where Cruz fails to capture the GOP nomination — he should still emerge from the 2016 campaign more powerful and influential then ever. Cruz excels on the stump and will be the most skilled debater in the Republican debates and other candidate forums that will take place over the next year. Furthermore, the primary campaign will provide Cruz with an ideal venue to, like a big-tent Texas revival evangelist from the past century, preach his gospel of constitutional conservatism and recruit new converts to his cause from across the nation.
********
Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's fellow in political science, the Joseph D. Jamail chair in Latin American studies and the chair of the Department of Political Science at Rice University.
great point!
Not only does Cruz have a proven record of:
1. doing what he said he would do if elected
2. FIGHTING against Obama and the democrats
3. beating establishment RINO’s
[Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in political science]
Jeb Bush camp
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/james-baker-jeb-bush-is-the-2016-republican-frontrunner/
TED CRUZ 2016
http://www.tedcruz.org/
Good article.
Any failure to capture the GOP nomination won’t be due to shortcomings by Cruz, but the inability of Americans to view matters and solutions through a conservative lens.
Cruz is indeed a masterful debater. There really isn’t a single issue he doesn’t have a high level of understanding. And what I like most of all is the fact he can rhetorically grind an opponent’s nose into the ground and be entirely likeable about it.
I wanted someone else to bring that up.
At age 44 he’s got decades ahead of him, that’s for sure.
I’m really happy to see some younger candidates.
Cruz is smart and calculating. He surely anticipated the onslaught of dismissals, so I’m curious to see how he sets out to define himself, leverage this to his advantage.
Cruz’ road to victory:
1. Win the Tea Partiers;
2. Win the Evangelicals;
3. Those two together will keep him in it until he can
4. Gain inroads into the Libertarians/conservative independents.
Then he’s in the finals. When he appears viable to them and they’ve heard him/listened to him, many mainstream Republicans will switch to him.
I see Walker winning this and Cruz replacing Ginsburg on the court.
However I want Cruz.
Yet another genius level analysis that includes gems such as fretting if someone of Cuban descent can win Florida....
Do these people even think about what they are saying?
He can also win a share of economic conservatives, social conservatives, foreign policy people and etc. He has already, this early, made inroads with libertarians:
Ted Cruz Reportedly Winning Over Some Rand Paul Supporters in Iowa
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3271921/posts
Ted Cruz Recruits Some Rand Paul Supporters in Iowa
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3271518/posts
[snicker]
Can you elaborate on what Ted Cruz has actually done?
Ted Cruz has done EXACTLY what he said he would do (I know! It’s CRAZY)
He said he would fight tooth and nail against Obama and the Democrats and do everything in his power to repeal Obamacare.
And he has done exactly that! (for which he is now called by the RINO’s “extreme”)
Because in a world where nearly all politicians LIE about what they will do if elected, telling the truth and following through with it is considered “extreme”
IF he wants to secure victory he needs to support drug war reform and fathers rights. Those two issues will pull a ton of support both from the Left and the middle.
Let’s end alimony, encourage states to adopt shared parenting rights, encourage states to enact family law reform as well as custody enforcement. You want to see the radicals scream and howl. These issues will make them go insane.
Let;s dismantle the ATF and the DEA. They are pointless and do more harm to the nation than good. They suck up resources and could easily be replaced by State and Local Gov as well as existing federal law enforcement like border patrol and the FBI. Take half of the ATF and DEA budget and apply it to border patrol and the FBI.
Sarah Palin 2.0 Somehow he was able to win two North American debate championships and place at the world level with that voice. Princeton named their freshman debate series after him, as well.
I've been preaching this theme here on good old FR for quite some time. I will be surprised if Ted Cruz doesn't wipe the floor with his fellow Republicans in the debates.
I kept hearing that. Then I listened to him closely for the first time when he gave his announcement speech. I see absolutely nothing wrong with his voice, and I think he's a skilled speaker. I can't wait to see him in the GOP debates. The Pubbies better let him in, or there's going to be hell to pay.
I think he looks like Bill Murray, and he sounds slightly like Dennis Miller. He probably is capable of the same kind of biting sarcastic humor that Miller has, but has to pull in the claws in public. Still, his quick sense of humor will serve him well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.