Posted on 03/06/2015 6:57:23 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Lenin v. Trotsky
The best thing to happen for the MD GOP is an ugly internecine battle between Edwards and Van Hollen. I predicted O’Malley’s Black Dem Lieutenant would be a bridge too far for White Dem voters in the state to support for Governor. This could provide an opening for Bob Ehrlich to win the Senate seat (if Edwards gets the Dem nomination).
They all look alike to us, but if the “progressives” make a real power play, a lot of democrats who are democrat just because their parents were, or they are in a blue collar job and think republicans are rich, or white democrats who are not the lilly white gentry class, are going to realize that the party has left them.
It’s gonna be tough going in a POTUS year. Ehrlich (if he runs) would need the level of crossover voting that Scott Brown couldn’t get in 2012.
Gee, aren’t I lucky to live here!
What about Dan Bongino?
Wow, Menendez under fire AND Milkulski leaving?
That’s two lifer statists being flushed out of D.C.!
Possibly, but Ehrlich has at least won statewide. Bongino has already lost two races in a row (including for Senator). Probably better to keep him in reserve to try to take the 6th back.
So a six year congressman wants her seat. Professional politicians with no qualifications for any real job
Ha ha ha! Now these White liberals are gonna reap what they sow. They played the race card and used identity politics on Republicans and now the Blacks and Latinos in their own party are gonna use it on them. You can bet the White liberal political establishment is not going to be willing to share power with minority groups. Sit back and enjoy this folks. What goes around comes around.
No doubt about it ....
Prior to being elected to the Senate, Mikulski represented the Maryland 3rd Congressional District. Her successor in that seat was Paul Sarbanes, who would later join her in the Senate. His successor was Ben Cardin — both in his House seat and his Senate seat. IOW, the last 3 Senators have all come from the same House seat.
The current occupant of that seat is Rep. John Sarbanes, son of Sen. Sarbanes. He’s a moron, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not at least looking at the race.
I think Dan Bongino is running again. I’m not sure Gov. Ehrlich wants to run for public office again. Some Republicans were hoping Dr. Carson would run for the seat, but he seems determined to make a presidential run.
Or perhaps the 8th (Van Hollen’s seat.)
I’ve heard rumors Andy Harris may be interested in the Senate seat.
You have that slightly backwards. It was Paul Sarbanes who won in the old 4th in 1970 after knocking out Dem incumbent Paul Fallon in the primary. The lines were redrawn for 1972 and Sarbanes moved into the 3rd and succeeded Edward Garmatz (who replaced Nancy Pelosi’s father, Tommy D’Alesandro). Paul Sarbanes defeated freshman Republican Senator J. Glenn Beall, Jr. in 1976 and Mikulski (who ran in 1974 against freshman leftist RINO Sen. Chuck Mathias and lost) succeeded Sarbanes. When Mathias stepped down in 1986, that paved the way for Mikulski to win the seat she lost 12 years before (then-Congressman Harry Reid duplicated that feat the same year in NV after he ran and lost against Paul Laxalt in 1974 and picked up the seat when Laxalt retired).
You’re correct that Ben Cardin, who had been a longtime member of the MD legislature (and House Speaker) succeeded Mikulski in 1987 and then acceded to Sarbanes’ seat when he retired, himself succeeded by John Sarbanes.
The last non-Baltimorean to hold a MD Senate seat was Mathias (as was Beall), both of whom hailed from the Western 6th district.
As an aside regarding Cardin, at the expiration of his current freshman term in the Senate in Jan 2019, he will have been in office continuously for 52 years (MD House, 1967-87; US House 1987-2013; US Senate 2013-).
One reason John Sarbanes will have trouble is because (after Steny Hoyer, who won’t leave his position as next in line to the Speakership if the Dems win back the House) Chris Van Hollen is considered “anointed” by leadership to move up to the Senate. Sarbanes hasn’t paid his dues yet and Edwards is below him on the proverbial food chain. I’d rank her 6th in importance out of the 7 Dem House members (ahead of only sophomore John Delaney in the 6th).
I’d advise Harris against running. 1st District (Eastern Shore) House members have never had success with running statewide in well over a century. The last one to win was Democrat Congressman John Walter Smith who won his freshman in 1898 and swiftly retired before the completion of his term when he won the Governorship. After a single term (1900-04) he succeeded to the Senate in 1909 following the death of the incumbent William Pinkney White (in those days, Senators were elected by the legislature). Smith won again in 1914 making the transition to the first popularly elected Senator from the state, but lost in the anti-Wilson GOP landslide of 1920 (just as a trivia note, that happens to be Mikulski’s seat).
Better for Harris to accrue seniority in the House where he can be more effective and let someone out of office at present to take a run for Mikulski’s seat. I think Ehrlich has the best shot.
And he is very weak. He got slaughtered by O Malley in 2010 a Republican wave year,
It was pretty well acknowledged he ran a weak, almost desultory campaign in 2010, though.
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