Posted on 02/17/2015 3:12:40 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
It's still early, but the future candidate is in serious trouble. Here's why his beloved Tea Party is to blame.
Just before sundown on Monday, Politico unveiled a report on how Kentucky Sen. Rand Pauls support for auditing the Federal Reserve has been received thus far on Wall Street. Very poorly seems to be the answer. According to Politico, in fact, the likely presidential candidates attempts to bring the Fed into the light may have permanently lowered the stock of the most interesting man in politics at least among the conservative members of the 1 percent. The Fed is the pre-eminent central bank on the planet, said one anonymous Wall Street big shot, and no one wants to put that at risk. The party establishment, he added, would go on red alert if necessary to deny Paul the GOP nomination.
In one way, this was to be expected. The economic bounce-back thats followed the Great Recession started benefitting Wall Street years before Main Street got a taste. Even now, when the working and middle classes are finally benefitting too, most of the economys new income is still flowing to the top. Placing the 2007-2009 hiccup aside, times on Wall Street have been rather good as of late. So the financial industrys reticence to put its most significant institution under the microscope is easily understood. And Wall Street was never Pauls main base of support, anyway.
In another sense, though, the Politico report is a surprise as well as an example of why Pauls chance at the nomination has always been overstated. Because while youd expect the GOPs establishment types to disdain Pauls anti-Fed populism, you wouldnt figure the pushback would come this early or this strong. And although youd imagine that a pseudo-libertarian like Paul would flourish in the Tea Party-era GOP, youd be mistaken if you saw the years spent talking about free-markets and liberty as anything more than simple branding. Each one would be a serious misstep; and it looks right now like Paul made em both.
To start, lets look at the Paul mistake that matters more to him than it does to us: timing. As noted previously, and as the Politico report makes apparent, close observers of the invisible primary for the GOPs presidential nomination knew that it was only a matter of time until the partys Wall Street wing tried to sink Paul. Yet most figured it would happen later, after the primary had begun in earnest and once the establishment-friendly candidates had quarreled over donors enough to wear each other down and expose one anothers weaknesses. Then Paul (or Sen. Ted Cruz or Ben Carson or some other Tea Party favorite) would swoop in and try to cobble together a winning coalition from the pieces.
But the surprisingly early and relatively frictionless launch of Bushs de facto presidential campaign mucked that plan up for good. Except for a few days when it looked like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would once again run for president, Bush has had an unexpectedly easy time gaining support from the kind of Republican donors who once supported Romney or might otherwise support Christie. The establishment-friendly niche in the GOP primary was supposed to be a free-for-all that left its ultimate victor wounded. Now it looks like it may be a relatively straightforward contest between Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker instead. And that would leave to Paul the unenviable task of winning the Tea Party populists support rather than having it fall into his lap.
That said, the other Paul misstep is more relevant to country at large. (And it reveals another reason why Paul should regard Bushs quick ascendance as such a threat.) From todays vantage, it looks like Paul made a real error by taking the rhetoric of the Tea Party so seriously. As has been true with countless pundits, and a handful of recently elected GOP officeholders, Paul seems to have believed the Tea Partys professions of libertarianism and of being more than a rebranded GOP base. At the very least, hes seemingly bet that while same-sex marriage and reproductive rights are nonstarters, the Tea Partys libertarianism is at least sturdy enough to act as a bridge to connect it with the hodgepodge mix of extremists who support him out of loyalty to his father.
Simply put, this gamble now looks like a mistake. If Jeb Bush was just one of many establishment-approved candidates locked in a desperate struggle to be anointed, and if the early stages of the primary concerned watching that drama reach its end, Pauls idiosyncrasies would be a real asset. In that situation, the Tea Party candidate would be focused on taking advantage of a splintered, weakened establishment by assembling Tea Partyers and outsiders together into a winning plurality. Pauls idiosyncratic views on foreign policy, mass surveillance and the Federal Reserve the things that make him interesting to the press would help him cast a wide net.
But if the dynamic is reversed and 2016 looks more like 2012, with a clear establishment favorite waiting to outlast a rotating cast of Tea Party-approved true conservatives, then Pauls ideological wanderings arent nearly so useful. Yes, his positions may be more coherent than, say, those of Cruz or Carson; he may be less inclined than most politicians to pick and choose when to follow his first principles. But figuring out how to make that pitch while simultaneously blasting the establishment candidate as a moderate heretic will be extremely difficult, to say the least. If the Tea Party were really more than the Republican base, Pauls libertarian-ish approach would have a real logic to it. Unfortunately for him, thats patently not the case.
Kentucky GOP will set up a caucus instead of a primary.
The phony Fauxcahontas Warren is against it too.
They have such an easy time tagging the Tea Party with whatever they dislike. Although Libertarians claim ownership of the Tea Party when it is convenient, the Tea Party is not libertarian.
The pitfall for candidates who currently have a public office -- think Rand Paul, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz, and Scott Walker -- is that the demands on their time and their day job exposes them to a new dimension of adverse scrutiny. Customary officeholder tactics based on publicity and picking useful fights can then easily sour. Meanwhile, as a private citizen, Jeb is able to tailor his schedule, make the most of his time as a candidate, and keep his mouth shut until the time is right and his campaign message has been fully developed and poll and focus group tested.
Jeb's campaign strategy no doubt aims at having a massive cash hoard that gives him the ability to compete everywhere and to have staying power against primary losses. As Romney did in 2012, Jeb can win the GOP nomination in 2016 by being both the preferred GOP establishment candidate and an acceptable alternative to the conservative rank and file. And as with Romney in 2012, in 2016, a splintered field of more conservative opponents will benefit Jeb.
To win the nomination against Jeb, a conservative candidate will need to quickly win the hearts of conservative nationally and push competing conservatives out of the race. Otherwise, if the 2016 nomination fight is Jeb versus a bunch of other guys, Jeb will likely win the nomination.
“Yes, his positions may be more coherent than, say, those of Cruz or Carson; ..”
LOL
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.