Who Could Emerge As The GOP Compromise Candidate At The Convention?

Ology ^ | February 21, 2012 | Noah Rothman

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Even without a competitive Republican primary, the GOP’s presidential nominee would not have been able to lock down the required 1,144 delegates required to cinch the nomination until May. Given the trajectory of the Republican presidential race, it is more than likely that the nominating contest will go on until the summer and may even stretch all the way to the convention.

There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about the possibility of a brokered convention where no candidate has the required delegates to secure the nomination outright. In that scenario, multiple ballots would be required by the convention delegates to determine the nominee. In that scenario, there is the not unprecedented but still unlikely possibility that the convention’s delegates could be deadlocked, forcing the party to select a compromise candidate from the list of Republicans that for one reason or another declined to run for president in 2012.

Who could emerge from the party’s compromise candidate? Despite all the talk of a weak field of candidates this year, there is a lot of GOP talent on the back bench to choose from.

Paul Ryan:

Advantages: Ryan is a young, articulate policy wonk and the head of the powerful Budget Committee. He will have authored two federal budget proposals by the time the convention rolls around and will be the focus of national debate on tax policy. Ryan hails from a swing district in a swing state and has positive favorability numbers there amidst a national campaign by unions to recall the state’s sitting Republican governor. He was the subject of a withering series of Democratic attacks for his proposed “Path to Prosperity” budget and emerged unscathed. Many Republicans would salivate over the potential for an Obama / Ryan debate.

Disadvantages: He is extremely polarizing and as the face of Republican budgetary math, would be vulnerable to the “Republicans want to hurl grandma off the cliff” argument. It is unlikely that he could deliver his light blue state in a presidential year. As a member of the House, he faces daunting historical odds of being elected directly from his present office to the White House. If he were to accomplish this feat, he would be the first to do so since James Garfield in 1880.

Chris Christie:

Advantages: the outspoken Republican governor of New Jersey was subject to an exhausting drafting effort in 2011 to run for president – he repeatedly refused, but the pro-Christie sentiment within the GOP remains strong. He backed Mitt Romney and would likely unite the pro-Romney bloc of delegates at the convention, his ability to take the rhetorical fight to Democrats would win over the Gingrich delegates and his relative lack of concern for social issues (save his recent veto of gay marriage legislation in New Jersey) would make Ron Paul’s delegates comfortable. Only Santorum’s folks would balk at Christie for his lack of sufficient commitment to “compassionate conservatism.”

Disadvantages: He is very unlikely to carry his own state; a key indicator of electoral success on the presidential level. Christie is also very polarizing and would alienate many Reagan Democrats and liberal-leaning independents. Furthermore, his unequivocal rejection of draft efforts may be overcome at the convention, but would leave lasting scars ahead of a general election. Christie may simply not be up for the grueling pace of the 10-week race to the finish line in November.

John McCain:

Advantages: If you will recall, he’s done this before. As the Republican nominee in 2008, McCain knows the pace of the general election and how to fundraise for it. McCain enjoys relatively positive favorability ratings and he will be uniquely positioned to take President Obama to task for promises made last year that he has been unable to deliver on.

Disadvantages: Remember when McCain was too old to run for president in 2008? Well, he’s four years older now. Furthermore, as a 2008 retread, he alienates the conservative base of the party that perceives Mitt Romney as being too liberal (recall, he was the conservative in the race four years ago). It is unlikely that he could survive a series of ballots at a Republican convention that where Santorum, Gingrich and Paul delegates will have a defining say is extremely limited.

Jeb Bush:

Advantages: There has been more than private speculation that the GOP could get behind Jeb Bush at the convention, one anonymous U.S. Senator told ABC News as much last week. Bush is the popular two-term governor of must-win Florida. He is bilingual and has a Puerto Rican wife and a politically active son who has a Latin American hue to his skin. Of all the declared candidates and possible compromise candidates, Bush is in the best position to capture the 40 percent of the Hispanic vote that was George W. Bush’s threshold for election in 2000.

Disadvantages: His last name. If Bush were at the top of the ticket in 2012, it would be the third such occasion in four election cycles. In fact since 1976, a Bush has been a primary candidate or on the Republican ticket in every presidential cycle but 1996 and 2008. There is no way to precisely measure Bush fatigue in the electorate but Americans are not predisposed to support political dynasties. If America were a more aristocratic culture, the Republicans would probably be seeking a nominee to challenge President Hillary Clinton today.

Sarah Palin:

Advantages: Palin has the primogenitor factor going for her – as the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, 2012 was her turn and she would be a major factor today if she had decided to run. Palin is the quintessential populist and, while she does not perform particularly well among independents, she is uniquely positioned to capture a segment of conservative Democrats dissatisfied with the president.

Disadvantages: There is no more polarizing politician on the right or left today than Palin. The fact that she was unable to capitalize on the primogenitor factor speaks volumes about her electoral chances. Her brand was substantially damaged in the intervening years between her presidential race and today. Given that she is soon to be the subject of what has to be a negative portrayal in the upcoming original HBO movie “Game Change,” her brand is soon to be subject to even more damage. Furthermore, Romney’s convention delegates would probably sooner sever a beloved digit than cast their votes for Palin.

Bobby Jindal:

Advantages: A two-term, sun-belt Republican with an Indian-American heritage, Jindal has the benefit of being able to negate Democratic identity politics (e.g. Republicans hate women, gays, Jews, blacks, the Easter Bunny and newborn kittens). Furthermore, Jindal has a great story to tell: the rebirth and growth of Louisiana after the destruction wrought by Hurricane Katrina. Jindal is also very popular among conservatives and moderates within the GOP and would emerge out of a brokered convention as fast if not faster than Jeb Bush.

Disadvantages: Jindal was one of the first and highest profile politicians to endorse Texas Gov. Rick Perry. This will allow his detractors to call his judgment into question – he can defend his position, but as a rule once you have to defend a position you’ve already lost. Furthermore, he has not had to debate national policy or be even particularly well versed on issues that transcend the borders of Louisiana. As much as they like Jindal, convention delegates would know his candidacy would be a big gamble.

John Thune:

Advantages: Thune floated a bid for the presidency in 2011 but declined early on in the process. As a multi-term Senator from South Dakota, Thune has a folksy, Midwestern demeanor about him. Furthermore, he is no radical and his stability is likely to be attractive to skittish delegates that are loath to bet their vote on an untested candidate. Thune, as an early supporter of Romney, would be the path of least resistance for convention delegates that hope to limit the length of a contested convention.

Disadvantages: Thune has represented South Dakota in Congress in some capacity since 1997 and has taken more than his share of controversial votes. This condition is compounded by the fact that he has not been a leader in Congress and has preferred to support his colleague’s legislation. Thune has a very limited national profile and can be defined by Obama’s reelection team and pro-Democratic groups relatively easily. He also supported the deeply unpopular TARP bailout legislation and has been a protector of agricultural subsidies that encounter sharp resistance outside the Heartland.

Mitch Daniels:

Advantages: A prime candidate for the presidency, Daniel’s declined to run last year (speculation surrounding his deferral surrounded his wife Cherrie’s lack of enthusiasm for the prospect of a national campaign). Daniel’s is a budget pro and a turnaround artist with a firm grasp of the wonky economic issues that will dominate the general election in 2012. He has also run a light red state that voted for Obama in 2008. Daniel’s can appeal to multiple segments of the GOP and was the first to propose that there be a “truce” on social issues in this presidential campaign as it muddies what should be the sole focus of the Republican party: the economy. Santorum’s convention delegates will balk at Daniel’s campaign, but the rest of the GOP may embrace him.

Disadvantages: Daniel’s is a soft-spoken type who is unlikely to engender much enthusiasm, even among his supporters. At the convention this could be overcome, but in a general election for the President of the United States it is the fiery politician and not the technocrat that usually carries the day. Also, as President Bush’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, Daniel’s is perilously well positioned to allow Democrats to reframe the terms of this election as a choice between Obama and a return to the Bush years. That may not worry many Republicans who see the Bush years as “the good ol’ days,” but in a general election that would likely be a profound liability.

[bigoil]

America’s ‘White Knight’:

John
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