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Gingrich Has Momentum Heading Into FL Primaries-Romney loses frontrunner status(NG 41, MR 31)
The Bradenton Times ^ | January 25, 2012 | Dennis Maley

Posted on 01/25/2012 12:00:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

BRADENTON – Coming off a big win in South Carolina and polling out front here in the Sunshine State, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich seems to have the momentum heading into Florida's presidential primary on January 31. After winning South Carolina by a wide margin, a recent Rasmussen poll has him nearly 10 points ahead of Romney at 41 and 31 percent respectively.

Romney's slide has also now extended into the national polls, where he is also plunging, having dropped 10 points to fall behind the former House Speaker. As the two prospective candidates continue to wage a bloody battle, President Obama seems to have gained the most, as his favorability ratings recently hit a one-year high this month, climbing to 53 percent in a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, as he headed into last night's State of the Union address. Gingrich was in Sarasota for a well-attended stump speech yesterday and did not even name Romney, focusing his attack squarely on the President.

South Carolina's size and winner take all delegate procedure gave Gingrich the delegate lead, as well as the popular vote total so far. Gingrich has 23 delegates, while Romney has 19, Santorum 12 and Paul 3, but keep in mind that there are 2,285 total delegates, which means a candidate has to secure 1,144 of them to lock down the nomination. In the GOP's system, some of the states pledge the delegates proportionately, while others are committed to giving all of them to the winner.

While Florida has been penalized half of their 99 delegates for moving their primary ahead of the earliest allowed date this year, they still will have the most delegates up for grabs so far, in another winner-take-all event. Nevertheless, with a four-man race likely to go on for some time, it is conceivable that the race will not be won until California awards its 172 delegates in early June.

Polling data presents a complicated picture for Gingrich. Always a polarizing figure, just as many voters seem to disapprove of him as do approve. He struggles with independents, but has gained considerable ground with Tea Partiers and Evangelicals. Where he clearly polls best is in Republican voter's belief in who can most likely beat President Obama in the fall -- a confidence Romney has been largely unable to inspire.

When an even closer look is taken, it seems that Gingrich and Santorum are the candidates whose supporters are most favorable of the other, meaning it is most likely that if anyone is splitting a certain voting bloc, it is the two of them, and either stands the greatest chance of a significant bump from a candidate's exit, should the other decide to drop out – though that seems unlikely in either case at least right now.

Congressman Ron Paul's supporters poll as the least flexible, indicating that their support would be least likely to go to another candidate, should he exit the race. It also means that his supporters are least likely to flea in light of a bad performance in states like South Carolina or Florida, where he lacks broad support, which could help him on February 28 when both Michigan and Arizona go to the polls – two states where Paul has polled well.

Mitt Romney seems to have a certain base of supporters that sits beneath a flexible amount of lukewarm support that was ready to rally behind him as the presumptive candidate, while remaining open to nearly any scenario where they feel they can viably nominate someone else. Romney has suffered large and almost continuous fluctuations in the polls that seem to have less to do with him, then the desire to audition alternatives.

If Gingrich wins Florida by a margin similar to the Rasmussen poll, that leaves Governor Romney one for four in the early primaries, which might be all Republicans need to fully swallow the notion that he's unelectable in a general election. At the same time, if poor performances in the next couple of contests by Santorum do manage to cause his exit, it might be enough to help the surging Gingrich pull away for good.


TOPICS: Florida; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: florida; gingrich; newt; romney
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Someone pinch me! Who could've imagined this just a month ago. $25 more to Newt tomorrow!
1 posted on 01/25/2012 12:00:08 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

someone cue the imperial march music- vader returns and he finds your lack of faith disturbing.


2 posted on 01/25/2012 12:06:21 AM PST by RC one (the majority of republicans agree, anyone but Romney.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I sure hope Newt is not taking this to seriously. Everybody and their dog is going to try to knock Newt out of the race..he can't relax until he wins a majority of the delegates and then the election in November.
3 posted on 01/25/2012 12:08:21 AM PST by montanajoe
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is amazing that so many people are able to look through what has been thrown at them, they must be having a heck of a political experience down there in Florida.


4 posted on 01/25/2012 12:08:47 AM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: ansel12

Didn’t something weird happen there back in 2000? I seem to remember some incident, but can’t put my finger on it.


5 posted on 01/25/2012 12:12:40 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: montanajoe

Like they say in sales: “If it were easy, everybody’d be doing it and it wouldn’t pay nuthin’!”


6 posted on 01/25/2012 12:14:04 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“I seem to remember some incident, but can’t put my finger on it.”

If you are talking about the recount, that wasn’t my first thought.

My first thought was the Gore campaign buying a marketing group’s time, two weeks before the election, to call the Jewish people in FL to tell them they may have mistakenly voted for Buchanan.

Can you put your finger on another event?


7 posted on 01/25/2012 12:18:28 AM PST by dixiechick2000 (This hobbit is looking for her pitchfork.)
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To: dixiechick2000

Green Iguana. Look it up.


8 posted on 01/25/2012 12:19:58 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You just reminded me that I have a brother who lives in Florida, he participated in that 2000 event.


9 posted on 01/25/2012 12:20:22 AM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I looked it up. It’s a very large lizard.

Point?


10 posted on 01/25/2012 12:26:04 AM PST by dixiechick2000 (This hobbit is looking for her pitchfork.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I am not for Gingrich as a first choice—he certainly would get my vote over Obama in the General if he were the GOP nominee, but indeed I am happy to see Mr. Romney be brought down a couple of notches, as he is the worst one up there save Ron Paul. Of course, things have been so volatile to-date for Election 2012-GOP, there is not any doubt in my mind that something completely different could be the case a month from now — the way the mass media pumps candidates up, and then unceremoniously knocks them down.


11 posted on 01/25/2012 12:30:09 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (Conservatism is probably best described not so much what a man says but how a man has lived his life)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Romney2, We're Number Tow
12 posted on 01/25/2012 12:31:32 AM PST by FrankR (You are only enslaved to the extent of the entitlements you receive.)
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To: dixiechick2000

The Talk of the Green Iguana
http://www.browardpalmbeach.com/2008-02-28/news/the-talk-of-the-green-iguana/


13 posted on 01/25/2012 12:31:35 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LOL! I saw the bar, the Green Iguana, but didn’t know where you were heading.

My bad.

He’s orange, too. ;o)


14 posted on 01/25/2012 12:37:00 AM PST by dixiechick2000 (This hobbit is looking for her pitchfork.)
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To: TitansAFC; 2ndDivisionVet
If Gingrich wins Florida by a margin similar to the Rasmussen poll, that leaves Governor Romney one for four in the early primaries, which might be all Republicans need to fully swallow the notion that he's unelectable in a general election.
At the same time, if poor performances in the next couple of contests by Santorum do manage to cause his exit, it might be enough to help the surging Gingrich pull away for good.



Lord, hear our prayer!
15 posted on 01/25/2012 12:38:04 AM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC - DONATE MONTHLY! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know!)
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To: FReepers
GO NEWT!!!

GO FREE REPUBLIC!!!

Rebellion is ON! Please Donate!

16 posted on 01/25/2012 12:42:25 AM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC - DONATE MONTHLY! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Partial headline: Romney loses frontrunner status

Romney never was "THE frontrunner"...he's been a media myth propped up by both the MSM & establishment Republicans...

Not including caucus campaigns, he's 0-17 in races "on the road" (away from his home turf). He's not a viable candidate. All four sections of the country (South, Midwest, West, East) have rejected him.

Someone pinch me! Who could've imagined this just a month ago. [2ndDivisionVet]

The Mythster was propped up by media mythsters who figured they could force-feed him upon voters and stampede people into voting for him.

17 posted on 01/25/2012 1:22:12 AM PST by Colofornian (If 94% of LDS repeat voting for Romney, then such RINO-voting reveals a liberal Mormon bent)
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To: FrankR

"If you want to talk about someone who's been an unreliable conservative, Speaker Gingrich sat down on a couch with Nancy Pelosi to talk about global warming and support cap and trade." Mitt Romney

18 posted on 01/25/2012 1:34:11 AM PST by RC one (the majority of republicans agree, anyone but Romney.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/action/2012-presidential-hopefuls-immigration-stances.html


19 posted on 01/25/2012 1:37:07 AM PST by roscommon
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To: Colofornian

“Romney never was “THE frontrunner”...he’s been a media myth propped up by both the MSM & establishment Republicans... “

Romney is the man to beat as long as conservatives split the vote between Newt and the other guy who wants to censor the internet.


20 posted on 01/25/2012 3:23:13 AM PST by ari-freedom (If SOPA/PIPA passes, we will lose our Free Republic.)
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