[uncbob]

That includes a lot of older polls

Rasmussen is the latest

Bad news for Newt

[xzins]

Not bad news for Newt in any serious way. The average probably is a better measure.

Most important:

Rasmussen has not revealed, or it has not been made public, how he is weighting his sampling of Iowa caucus goers.

In a national poll against a democratic opponent, we are told how many democrats and how many republicans went into the result. We would know the books were cooked if a poll had 800 democrats and 200 republicans.

We are not told how many conservative, moderate, and liberal republicans go into Rasmussen’s numbers.

Since Iowa has been controlled by a very large group of conservative Christians for a number of cycles now, they should be the lion’s share of the sample.

We are not told.

[InterceptPoint]

Unfortunately you are right about the older polls. Using RCP polling methodology in a dynamic situation like Iowa is not good practice. Just watch the polling and the trends.

The negative ads in Iowa are having their effect. Tonight's debate will be watched by a lot of Iowa folk. That will affect the Iowa polling as well.

We live in interesting times. Get used to it Freepers.