If Obama’s replaced by Hillary - a white woman - black women will bolt ...
When the decision is made - and it's really the only decision they CAN make - he will be "replaced" in a way that will solidify the black vote.
Though Hillary might lose black women (who would just stay home), she might make up for that loss by picking up a large chunk of female independent vote.
If Obama is replaced by a white person of either sex, blacks in general won’t vote. I think the scenario where they go out and riot is a little far-fetched, but they most certainly voted for Obama only because of his skin color (heck, he’s not even really “African American,” in the true sense of that phrase) and because he used it to stoke resentments and make them think they were going to get special preference under him.
Maybe they did - they do have the highest unemployment rate under him, after all. But black voters were very firmly committed to Obama and simply will not criticize him and would never vote for any white candidate who replaces him, no matter who. The problem is that white Democrat voters would probably never vote for a black candidate again, or not for a long time, at least although they might vote for Obama again.
So I don’t see the Dems being able to get rid of him if they want to keep the black vote, and while it’s not a huge percentage of the vote overall, it was crucial to their win in the important states.
That said, I think he’d leave if he was offered something like Supreme Court justice or possibly if they could rework UN rules so he could be Secretary General. The other possibility would be something like head of the Ford Foundation or some other Marxist-oriented mega-foundation.
But I don’t really think the Dems can lose him if they want to keep the black vote.
When has sex ever been a better explanatory variable than race?
Especially if Cain is on the GOP ballot. Black business owners are going to tell their black employees, that the GOP is better for their job futures than the Democrats.