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The Palin Uncertainty: How late is too late?
Human Events ^ | September 7, 2011 | John Hayward

Posted on 09/07/2011 2:00:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Ann Coulter​ appeared on Fox News Tuesday night to discuss the uncertainty surrounding Sarah Palin​’s presidential ambitions with Laura Ingraham. Neither of them thought much of Palin’s chances.

(VIDEO AT LINK)

Judging the fortunes of political candidates from polls is a tricky business, especially those who have not formally declared yet. Is it a sign of strength or weakness that non-candidate Sarah Palin shows up in third place behind Rick Perry​ and Mitt Romney? Whatever that says about Palin, it’s probably a more significant data point for the declared candidates chugging in behind her. Personally, I would not find the notion that I could enter the Presidential race in third place to be depressing.

At any rate, people do change their minds. President Obama’s cratering poll numbers are significant, but it would be rather foolish to assume they’re a perfect predictor of his electoral success in 2012. If Palin is a good presidential candidate, then formally entering the race and taking the stage at debates will move the polls in her direction. Her official presence would expose her to a wider audience, especially as the election draws closer. For good or ill, her public statements and campaign positions would become more important than the mythology surrounding her.

There’s no other way to find out whether three years of media mud will stick to Palin, or whether three years of enthusiasm from her supporters will translate into votes. My sense is that people who closely follow politics are underestimating how much the general public remains undecided about even a prominent figure like Palin. We too easily mistake our passions, pro and con, for broad sentiment among a populace that only sees the tip of the media icebergs we swim between.

Much of the poll input about Palin, both good and bad, is coming from folks who barely remember her from the 2008 campaign, or mostly think of her as a television personality. Someone who says they would love to vote for her as President might be thinking fondly of an episode from Sarah Palin’s Alaska, while someone who declares they would never vote for her might be thinking of a nasty joke from a late-night comedian. That all changes if she becomes an official candidate and enters the headlines of the 2012 race, just as it’s changing for Rick Perry right now. He had a high profile as well, and has attracted both new supporters and new critics since he emerged from the roiling mists of speculation.

Likewise, commentators and their ardent readers might be projecting their own impatience onto a larger public that really doesn’t care if a big-name candidate enters the race in October or November. The maddening “tease” Coulter and Ingraham complained about will retroactively become signs of Palin’s intentions that should have been obvious all along. That’s how “conventional wisdom” is formed.

My biggest gripes about Palin’s long decision-making process are personal and institutional. On a personal level, I cheerfully admit to wanting every candidate to declare early and stay in the race a long time, because they give me stuff to write about. I admire those like Herman Cain who got into the race early, and put all their cards right on the table. Institutionally, I worry that a late entry followed by victory will form a new conventional wisdom for 2016 and beyond, in which the early primary season is dismissed as a forlorn bullpen for hopeless wannabes. I think voters are well-served by long and vigorous primaries.

I would point out a lesson I learned the hard way: prominent people who decide not to run for President want to control the precise moment in which they convey their intentions. They want to build the maximum impact for their endorsements… or refusal to endorse anyone, which can also be a powerful statement. They view the possibility that they could yet enter the race as a potent force for shaping the political conversation. If those are factors in Palin’s decision to stretch out her “tease,” then she’s hardly unique.

In the wake of the conversation between Coulter and Ingraham, many bloggers echoed Coulter by expressing their exasperation with fans who can’t tolerate any criticism of Palin. I suspect Palin herself would strongly maintain that the issues at hand are far larger than any single person, and would not be happy with those who say they will only participate in the 2012 elections if they can vote for her. She also wouldn’t want the issues she cares about to be evaluated solely through personal admiration or disdain for her. Of all the many things Palin has been, or aspired to be, I’ve never heard her express a desire to become an ingredient in an ideological litmus test. She puts too much effort into writing and speaking eloquently, about matters of great substance, to be treated that way.

Why are so many Palin fans dedicated to her, and why do they perceive so much of the criticism leveled at her from sources on the Right as unfair? Because she’s always out in front. She took a mountain of abuse in 2008, and then cheerfully began climbing the even bigger mountain behind it. Hers is often the first voice raised in response to attacks against conservatives, the Tea Party, and middle-class Americans… especially against the really vicious attacks. And when Palin herself is the target, as in the wake of the Tucson atrocity, too many conservative and Republican “leaders” are much too slow to speak up for her.

Look at her response to James Hoffa’s vile remarks on Labor Day, and Barack Obama​’s agreeable silence afterward. She didn’t just run to a camera and express her outrage. She wrote a very detailed, thoughtful response, as constructive as it was fiery, and posted it in the wee hours of the morning. Did you see anything like that from the declared GOP presidential candidates? Why not?

Maybe Palin won’t run, and never seriously planned to. Maybe she will, but she’s taking a long time to make her announcement. She always said she wanted to see if there’s another candidate she could support. Tonight will be the first big debate appearance of Rick Perry, the last big name to join the race. He had a pretty spectacular campaign launch. Is it so unreasonable for Palin to wait a bit longer and see how he fares, once his campaign reaches orbit? If she’s a non-factor, why are so many people – pro and con – being so unreasonable about her?

If Palin doesn't run, the vast majority of her supporters will look to the other candidates. If those candidates think they've been left with insufficient time to rally voters to their cause, because Palin waited a few extra months to announce she wouldn't enter the race, then Sarah Palin isn't the one who has a problem worthy of serious criticism.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: anncoulter; palin; perry; romney; sarahpalin; smellthefear; toolatememe; waronsarah
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is NOT a ‘hijack’ attempt ...

This issue reflects a nearly fatal flaw in the current operation of the National Election ‘cycle’. By some objective criteria, THIS ‘cycle’ is already almost a year old and the National Party Nominating Conventions are still a year away !

Self-nomination as a candidate this early in the ‘cycle’ is tantamount to suicide as it serves ONLY to position oneself as a target for the Media, the opposition party and the other nominees of your own party.

Ignore the sheer waste of time and resources spent ‘campaigning’ to create or merely maintain some degree of relevancy and then SUSTAIN it through the primaries and the nominating convention.

What appears most likely for the overwhelming majority of potential candidates is simply to provoke destructive attacks from all sides and to become the victim of ennui or over-exposure to friends and foes alike.

What MATTERS, ultimately, is who’s still standing late in the primary season and who is still ‘relevant’ come the nominating convention.

By delaying entry into such a self-defeating venture, a potential candidate MIGHT preserve a certain degree of dignity, resources and ‘relevance’ for when the contest actually matters.

‘Campaigning’, ‘debating’ ( !!! ), polling and producing ‘positions’ at this remove from the actually contest is a wholey ‘empty’ exercise for ALL concerned — the potential candidates, the potential voters, the potential contributors, etc.

The only ‘winners’ are the Media and the professional political hacks and operatives egging on the participants.

One Man’s Opinion ...

21stCenturion


21 posted on 09/07/2011 3:05:45 PM PDT by 21stCenturion ("It's the Judges, Stupid !")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The pundits keep asking if it’s too late for her to run. The question should be if it’s too late for her to not run.

I think she can wait until October 31 to get in because that’s the deadline for being on the Florida ballot. I doubt she will wait that long.

If she keeps on waiting and ultimately says she’s not running, she ends up looking like a grifter to a lot of people.


22 posted on 09/07/2011 3:22:11 PM PDT by FreedomForce (Perry 2012 | Perry/Palin 2016 | Palin 2020)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
The longer she delays announcing her candidacy, the longer she keeps the ruling-class RINOs, state-controlled media, DemocRAT and Republican opponents, etc. in complete and total disarray. Why should she give up her strategic advantage? To make it "fair" for the RINOs and 'Rats?

Exactly. Everyone screams war, war, war, but when they finally come up against someone who knows how to fight, they shriek that it's unfair.

Which, of course, is also war.

They aren't affecting Palin. This is a meme war to turn her voters away from her, by making them doubt her. And as it goes, it's a pretty good plan, as long as her voters are her voters for the typical reasons Americans vote for somebody.

But they're not.

And Sarah knows it.

LOL!

23 posted on 09/07/2011 3:27:43 PM PDT by Talisker (History will show the Illuminati won the ultimate Darwin Award.)
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To: NoLibZone

@MrLTavern
Mr.L Erick Erickson, had “enough” of us? Feeling is mutual. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wV3-zxJSU


24 posted on 09/07/2011 3:58:42 PM PDT by GlockLady (Sarah Palin - The Antidote - Going Oval January 20, 2013!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Millions of dollars of investigation...unending liberal and Rino refutations...the death threats, the SNL impersonations, four years of smear and she’s more influential than ever...the 24 hour a day 7 days a week obsession with a woman who supposedly is of no relevance whatsoever.

I guess people need a hobby. ;^)


25 posted on 09/07/2011 4:34:30 PM PDT by tarotsailor
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To: NoLibZone
Ronald Reagan didn’t officially announce until November 11, 1979


And by today's standards Reagan would have not been on the ballot in Florida or South Carolina. Very few things stay static over a long time span. Change is inevitable

26 posted on 09/07/2011 4:43:35 PM PDT by deport
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To: E. Pluribus Unum; 2ndDivisionVet; NoLibZone; Berlin_Freeper; GlockLady; Nervous Tick; ...
OH PUH-LEEZE, GIVE ME A BREAK!

Ann Coulter + Laura Ingraham = two Ivy League BA holding women w/ law school degrees who at some point in their life, dreamt of holding high political office (Coulter almost ran for Congress in Connecticut!)--but neither had the courage to challenge the old boy establishments of which they hail from, so they instead "worked within the system" (as ivy leaguers are trained to do) and settled for the sole outlets by which feminist-minded women (the conformist breed of feminist) can gain the kind of stature they were desiring:

This meant settling for something "easier" and less adventurous aka: professional punditry and criticism, sitting on the SIDELINES of the arena, while catering to heartland audiences all while "living the elitist" life they supposedly decry and stand above (both are notorious for dating liberal, pro-abortion, elite men. Ingraham dated Keith Olbermann, Ann Coulter dated liberal NY Congressman Andrew Stein.)

Did they offer valuable insight and contributions to the conservative movement? OF COURSE! Are their writings worthwhile reading? SURE! Do they have some honest convictions behind what they say? Absolutely.

BUT at the end of the day, they are WOMEN, trained to believe in ever-so-limited roles for influence. SARAH PALIN threatens their STATUS. Yes, the woman from Alaskan wilderness, with a husband of 25 years, 5 children with a Down's Syndrome one to boot, and an actual RECORD of *TANGIBLE* ACCOMPLISHMENT -- not just an archive of commentary written behind a desk in a nicely lit Manhattan apartment! YES. OF COURSE, they resent Palin -- however subconscious this resentment may be.

Their whole lives have been defined by working within the system--never truly challenging it. ANd here coems Saintly True-Christian, Naturally Pretty, Provocative (in a non sexual way) and Controversial without even trying--> Sarah from Wasilla with a journalism degree from podunk, Idaho (ironic isn't it? No J.D. like the others?), and she actually has risen ABOVE the system and demolished the strongholds of the very old boy networks Ingraham and Coulter have kissed up to their whole lives, with their ever well-maintained blonde hair and carefully lotioned legs.

As the years pass them by, and the landscape of the media changes, the last thing they would want is someone to outshine their "starpower" roles within the conservative movement and its legacy. You betcha they don't want Palin to be President. She just steals all the attention!

27 posted on 09/07/2011 9:54:44 PM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege (Palin 2012)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege

Well said. I was once a fan of both Ingraham and Coulter, but I have found their continued support of Mitt Romney and Coulter’s promotion of Chris Christie to be a considerable disappointment. This most recent conversation they had about Palin is the final straw.


28 posted on 09/08/2011 5:09:55 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: CondoleezzaProtege
POST OF THE DAY!!!
29 posted on 09/08/2011 12:02:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Gov. Sarah Palin. What'll you do?)
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