[CowboyJay]

"I am not so sure that Bachmann voters go to Palin. If Free Republic is any indication it would appear that Bachmann's base is the far right social conservative ideologue. These are the people who generally stay home."

Appropriate tag line. According to the polls, Bachmann takes her support from a combination of Mitt and Palin. Most Palin votes swing to Bachmann if she stays out and vice-versa.

The actual far-right socially conservative ideologues (also known as the southern evangelical voting bloc) go to Perry first, although it is quite likely that they would default to Palin or Bachmann (in that order) if Perry does not run.

The only primary candidate who has made any inroads into Mitt's support base is Bachmann, likely due to her iron-clad fiscal voting record. Including Perry in the polls does not affect Mitt's numbers. He only draws support out from under Palin & Bachmann, and for the most part only in the South and Lower Midwest.

Perry has yet to break out of the single digits along the northern tier of states. His support is so low there that he probably wouldn't carry any of those states even if Bachmann dropped out and endorsed him.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Why be a jerk?

The poll comparisons I have seen showed an even distribution of Palin supporters going to 3 or 4 candidates. Polls are useless as far as I am concerned. Too far out.

I was referring to Bachmann's core support and added the caveat that if FR was any indication. With a few exceptions the Palin supporters will offer a second or third choice. Not so much with the Bachmann supporters.

[truthfreedom]

Forced Gardasil doesnt bother southern evangelicals? Southern evangelicals are southern, as is Perry, so there might be that.