Dogs are wonderful judges of character.
Posted on 05/18/2011 1:56:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Mike Huckabee’s supporters might not rush to the side of Sarah Palin, despite the conventional wisdom that she’ll be the key beneficiary of his decision not to run for president next year.
Both the former governor of Arkansas and former governor of Alaska are populist Republicans with strong evangelical credentials.
Yet there are some significant differences between the two that suggest Huckabee supporters might not flock to Palin en masse.
Style
Palin’s and Huckabee’s rhetorical styles couldn’t be more different. Palin mocks her Democratic opponents; Huckabee tends to engage them and look for common ground.
When first lady Michelle Obama launched her childhood anti-obesity campaign, Huckabee welcomed her onto his Fox News show and lauded her efforts.
“She’s been criticized unfairly by a lot of my fellow conservatives. I think it’s out of a reflex, rather than out of a thoughtful expression. … We don’t have to believe that everything the other side proposes is immediately and altogether bad,” he said.
But Palin did find Michelle Obama’s anti-obesity efforts altogether bad.
“Take her anti-obesity thing that she is on: She is on this kick, right ... just leave us alone. Get off our back,” she told conservative talk radio host Laura Ingraham.
Talk show host Glenn Beck also noticed the difference between approaches and sided with Palin, telling his audience: “I think Mike Huckabee is a guy who’s had Michelle Obama on his show and said, ‘You know, your fat-kid programs are great.’ ”
Much of Huckabee’s support is generated by his personality, ethos and style, which is warm and engaging. It’s hard to imagine a primary voter who loves both Huckabee and mocking Michelle Obama. And so it’s hard to imagine Huckabee’s supporters switching from the guy who hosted Michelle Obama on his program to the gal who roasted her.
Gender
Over the past few years, Huckabee has polled stronger with women than any potential Republican prospect; Palin has polled stronger among men than women. A study of 18 state-by-state Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys in 2010 showed Huckabee outperforming Palin among women in a majority of states.
That difference is stark in the key state of Iowa.
A recent PPP survey in that state showed Palin was 17 percent more popular with Republican men than with Republican women. And Huckabee was 28 percent more popular with GOP women than was Palin.
It could be that Huckabee’s style is responsible for much of the gender gap. His less strident message and rhetorical style might play better with women, while Palin’s bomb-throwing might appeal primarily to men.
Theoretically, then, there are doubts that Huckabee voters would easily switch to Palin’s side — for both the stylistic and gender reasons, which seem to be related.
Religion
It’s often assumed that Palin is the natural heir to Huckabee’s religious supporters. She’s spoken for numerous religious charities, hired an evangelical to ghostwrite her memoir, and has moved easily through the Christian conservative world since the 2008 election.
But an Iowa poll last month showed Palin failing to make much of a dent in the evangelical population. She actually scored twice as well among likely Republican caucus-goers who never attended church as ones who went weekly.
There’s no obvious reason why, but there are a couple possibilities. It could be that evangelicals — who value a soft answer and turning the other cheek — are offended by Palin’s sardonic sense of humor, which once turned President Obama’s “Winning the future” slogan into the acronym for an obscenity — “WTF.”
It’s also possible that stricter evangelicals resent her decision to forgo being a full-time mom to become a full-time political celebrity.
Regardless of motive, polling hasn’t yet shown Palin to be the inevitable evangelical powerhouse she’s often painted as, and once again, style and gender might interact with religion’s effect on preference. Women are more likely to be churchgoers, and churchgoers might find acerbity more unappealing — and voila, therein might lie much of the difference between Palin’s and Huckabee’s support.
Summary
In PPP’s most recent survey of Iowa, Palin’s needle moves up nearly imperceptibly without Huckabee in the race — belying all the conventional wisdom. With Huckabee in the race, she pulls in 12 percent. With him out, she brings in 15. That’s only a 3-point bump out of the 30 percent of all voters Huckabee pulled in.
In other words, Huckabee’s Iowa supporters hardly flocked to her in droves without their guy in the race.
There are many types of Huckabee voters — some of whom will undoubtedly be drawn to Palin. But there also seems to be a bloc that will prove difficult for her to win over — Huckabee’s female and more religious supporters. How ironic that the type of voter Palin would likely call herself — female, religious-conservative — might be the one that denies her the nomination.
How do you get rid of that page size pop up that hides the Morris poll?
The ones who understood Huckster’s socialist record were certainly not conservatives.
Women are Gov. Palin’s strongest supporters. As the first female presidential candidate, she will win with women voters which is why she is so feared by the democrats.
I hope you are right...
Where else is she going to find 5 voters?
But eventually her success will depend on the comparisons everybody will make when all the candidates are side by side and present their cases and themselves without the leftist press filters. If, as I do NOT expect, she were to fall flat on her face in a debate then so be it. But I expect the opposite to occur. The lady has a consistent history of leaving the men (and women) she competes with in the dust wondering what just hit them.
That being said, she would have a considerable task ahead to overcome the three straight years of lies and distortion that are out there. Impossible? Not at all. Difficult? Sure. But unless and until she's definitely not running or somebody else who I believe in as much comes along, if she's on a ballot in my hand the lady has my vote.
I don't think Joe is going to run this time. Obama will look for someone younger and more popular. Probably the next American Idol winner.
I can’t see Huckabee’s backers going to Sarah. He’s a socialist.
You’ve noticed wrong.
No way. Cain/Senor ticket. We will get the C and S needed for Common Sense.
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Hey, onyx. Check this out! :)
Need a pic of fido lifting his leg and wetting on a NittWitt Mitt Poster.
She may be smart not to. Let the anti-Tea Pary crowd go down in smoke first.
She may be smart not to. Let the anti-Tea Party crowd go down in smoke first.
” It could be that evangelicals — who value a soft answer and turning the other cheek — are offended by Palin’s sardonic sense of humor, which once turned President Obama’s “Winning the future” slogan into the acronym for an obscenity — “WTF.””
As an born again Christian I find that hilarious.
That's funny. I can't count how many commentators I;'ve heard list off who they think will benefit most from Huck's dropping out and none of them even mentioned Srah Palin (except Huck himself), yet this is "conventional wisdom)?
Her base aren’t those who listen to or gullible to the propaganda of the MSM. IMO, anyone pro America should be insulted by crapola the MSM dishes out and their cover of barry. She’s our only hope - there is no one who has blasted barry’s tactics for 2.5 years like her. There has been no other voice for our country. If a wuss gets on the ballot, I sit out this year - I’m not playing their games any more with the rino’s aligning themselves to bring this country down. I’m not pulling a lever to make it happen and it will happen with a rino.
My parents, 80 year olds, are big Huck fans. They said they will vote for whoever Huck backs.
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