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Well, two things, for what they’re worth.

First, polls from the election George H.W. Bush lost seem to indicate that he drew equally from both candidates, that the people who voted for Perot would either have stayed home, or chosen the Republican or the Democrat choice in about equal numbers if Perot hadn’t made himself one. I’ve only seen one source for this though, and it’s not common belief (nor was it mine until seeing it), so if there are other links to refute it, please let me know.

Second, Trump has stated more than once that he would not run if his running as an independent weren’t indicated by polling as very likely to be victorious, that he would stand down in order to be rid of the golfer-in-chief. How likely that seems to many people on here has been talked about. He’s also said he thinks the race for the Republican nomination is a greater challenge to him than that for the presidency.

Here two interesting discussions of the 1992 election:

http://www.leinsdorf.com/perot.htm
http://mobile.salon.com/politics/war_room/2011/04/04/third_party_myth_easterbrook/index.html

In 1992, Clinton was the “hope’n’change” candidate, Bush was the “establishment” candidate. Once Perot got in, there were TWO “hope’n’change” candidates in the race.

In 2012, the “hope’n’change” candidate of 2008 has become the “establishment” candidate with a miserable record to defend. Bush was in the same position in 1992, but Obama’s record is far worse.

Clinton had the unquestionable advantage of his skill at the game of politics while Bush was just coasting on the good will that he absorbed from Reagan, and the popularity of the Gulf War. The “read my lips” fiasco doomed him.

If the GOP nominates someone like Romney (it’s his turn, after all), that means there will TWO establishment candidates. Were Trump to enter as a third party candidate, HE would be the “hope’n’change” candidate. Trump would pull votes from both sides, as Perot did in 1992.

But Perot ran a miserable campaign, and even dropped out and got back in. Does that remind anyone of McCain 2008?

Trump would play to win.

A few years ago, I looked at the vote totals from 1992 in detail, and concluded that the tipping point was at about 65%. That is, Perot would have to have taken that percentage of his votes (or more) from Bush to throw the election to Clinton. The exit polling does not support that notion.

This was based on the assumption that all of Perot’s voters would have voted either for Bush or Clinton, rather than staying home, or voting for some other 3rd party candidate.

And that is a bad assumption to make, since the Perot excitement factor drew millions of new voters into the process (or reawakened otherwise apathetic voters). The popular vote was 91.5 million in 1988, 104.4 in 1992, and 96.2 in 1996. So, the 1992 election saw 12.9 million more voters than in the previous election, and 8.2 million of them didn’t bother to vote in 1996. Certainly, some of the 1992 increase would be due to the ongoing population growth of the country, but the majority of those 12.9 million new votes were cast directly as a result of the Perot show.

All of this should serve as a warning to the GOP establishment for 2012-they’d better not even think about running another establishment candidate. And any true conservative candidates who might run had better be ready for the fight of his or her life.

The economy was the big issue in 1992, and it will be a bigger one in 2012. The people were in a sour mood in 1992, and all indications are that they will be ready to grab the torches and pitchforks in 2012. This will be an election unlike any other.

You are right on Perot, that the polls show that he did not "elect" Bill Clinton, but drew evenly from both.

As for Trump, he's saying things almost NO major candidate (including Palin) will say, namely "show us the BC" and "China is a threat." Everyone else is tiptoeing around these issues. He will continue to be popular so long as the RINOS and even some conservatives back off these.

But he is ultimately a loose cannon, bad on guns, bad on social issues, and not a deep thinker economically. He is not consistent as a conservative in the least, and therefore untrustworthy.

All that said, if it's Trump or Barry, guess who gets my vote?