[bigbob]

I like Trump getting into the race - “Split the Mitt” vote.

[RBIEL2]

If Palin is like Reagan and Romney like Bush I.
What does that leave you for the Summer of 2012?

[Dr. Sivana]

I like Trump getting into the race - “Split the Mitt” vote.

I'm afraid it's a little more complicated than that. Just like Perot getting a lot of conservative votes he didn't deserve based on his positions, Trump's demeanor may divert as many or more votes from Palin than from Romney.

A lot of people vote on character impressions, or on outsider vs. insider. Better candidates like Daniels and Pawlenty are more likely to take from Romney.

With Romney, he must be beaten soundly in Iowa ... no surprise second place finish.

Then his performance in New Hampshire must be described as practically a home state win. Bill Clinton, who won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire used this successfully against Mass. Senator Paul Tsongas, who was never heard from again. Then, Romney finishes low in South Carolina. Describe any wins in Nevada or Utah as Mormons voting for a Mormon. Nothing against Mormons politically, but that was what happened last time (except for Paul's shenanigans in Nevada). I remember normally-conservative Greeks who voted for Dukakis. For certain groups, identity politics is hard to overcome. Whoever is the front-runner should concentrate on the Michigan primary (2/28/2012). Knock Romney out in an important "home" state and he's done.