Posted on 11/10/2010 5:18:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Tea Party, Shmea Party. Post-election surveys suggest that Mitt Romney still leads as the favored Republican presidential candidate for 2012.
His lead looks especially big in New Hampshire: Almost 30 points.
Does this big lead translate into a smooth ride to the nomination?
That depends on whether Romney's campaign follows the path of George W. Bush's in 2000 or Hillary Clinton's in 2008.
Here's the happy scenario for Romney: Like Bush in 2000, Romney is the Republican heir apparent in 2012. Like Bush, Romney has the backing of the party's biggest donors. Like Bush, Romney has national campaign experience. Like Bush, Romney faces opponents who can be dismissed as either obscure (Pawlenty, Daniels) or extreme (Palin, Gingrich.)
Finally, like Bush, Romney faces one early bump on the way to the nomination (Romney polls badly in Iowa, just as Bush did in New Hampshire) but otherwise seems the most popular candidate in most of the early voting states.
So: Smooth sailing?
Maybe not. Everything that can be said of Romney and Bush could have been said of Hillary Clinton. Heir apparent? Check. Support of biggest donors? Check. National-campaign experience? Check. Opponents obscure (Barack Obama) or extreme (John Edwards)? Few visible roadblocks ahead?
Check, check, and check.
Even if Hillary Clinton had every advantage, her campaign was ultimately sunk by two holes beneath the water line: Her vote for the Iraq war and the perception of her husband's administration as too conservative on economic issues.
These two issues damaged Clinton with the most intense party activists and it was these activists who dominated the caucus states that gave Barack Obama his margin of victory.
Now look again at Romney. The sort of person who writes a big check to the GOP every cycle may see in Romney a competent CEO for the United States. But to the people who will spend hours in an Iowa caucus room, Romney also has two holes below his water line: TARP and healthcare reform.
Hillary Clinton hesitated for months, then belatedly repudiated her Iraq vote in hope of mollifying party activists. Romney has worked harder and faster to placate his internal critics by drawing distinctions between his health reform in Massachusetts and the plan enacted in Washington and vehemently opposing the latter. At most, we can say the verdict of the Republican base is pending.
How will we know if Romney is Bush or Clinton?
If Romney pulls far ahead in his fundraising if the more conservative Republicans continue to divide between Palin, Gingrich and others and if he locks up endorsements early, then 2000 is repeating itself and he's the next Bush.
But if those things do not happen, then Romney faces a grim outlook.
The people who support him are the same people who regard Sarah Palin as utterly unacceptable, both as a candidate and as a president. If Romney does not win early, fear of Palin will send them hunting fast for another alternative. There's a long list available of such alternatives and there's one name that does not get mentioned nearly often enough: Jeb Bush.
Yes, Bush says he's not running.
But if it's January 2012 and if Romney has finished fourth in Iowa and is plunging in national polls, Republican governors, members of Congress and donors will be asking the question: Who can put together a national organization and raise tens of millions of dollars in six weeks flat? And that's a question that points back to the mightiest fund-raising dynasty in the Grand Old Party.
Lotsa people hate Romney because he’s a lying, multiple-faced, flip-flopping, lying, backstabbing, baby murdering, Man-date loving, lying, gay supporting, RINO.
If Romney gets the nomination, the last thing I’ll be worried about is David Frum. I’ll be concentrating on helping the third party candidate running against him.
Mittens couldn’t beat McDemocrat back in 2008. He’s a non-starter.
Who cares what drugs Romney took.
His problem is his backstabbing, RomneyCARE,
and the other disasters he wrought as the worst
GOP Governor in the history of Massachusetts.
So? Are you a racist morey? Don’t like white folks? Maybe there’s another site more suited to your views. Probably lots of them.
Romney would be better than Obama.
Of course it’s hard to think of anyone who wouldn’t be better than Obama except Hugo Chavez, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a few others of similar ilk.
Anyway, Sarah Palin is going to be our candidate and the next President of the United States.
Yeah, I hear a lot of calumny poured out on Mitt, but I’ve never seen anything other than rants and attacks. I see a lot of links above, but not much substance. What DID he do to destroy that big lead McCain had going into the election? I kind of thought it was that swing around the south into Washigton where he cancelled his campaing, and then voted for the damn TARP that was what put the final nail in his coffin.
Romney helped, helps, and supported Obama.
Except for his attacks on the GOP, Mitt Romney is a PROVEN failure.
"As U.S. real output grew 13 percent between 2002 and 2006, Massachusetts trailed at 9 percent.
* Manufacturing employment fell 7 percent nationwide those years, but sank 14 percent under Romney, placing Massachusetts 48th among the states.
* Between fall 2003 and autumn 2006, U.S. job growth averaged 5.4 percent, nearly three times Massachusetts' anemic 1.9 percent pace.
* While 8 million Americans over age 16 found work between 2002 and 2006, the number of employed Massachusetts residents actually declined by 8,500 during those years.
"Massachusetts was the only state to have failed to post any gain in its pool of employed residents," professors Sum and McLaughlin concluded.
In an April 2003 meeting with the Massachusetts congressional delegation in Washington, Romney failed to endorse President Bush's $726 billion tax-cut proposal."
[Cato Institute annual Fiscal Policy Report Card - America's Governors, 2004.]
In the larger sense, most likely.
Elected President? Or am I misunderstanding you? I think you’d have a news story there.
Frum is what passes for “conservative” in Scandanavia and Canada.
Frum should have stayed in Canada.
Can we deport him?
I don’t hate Romney — I simply don’t want him anywhere near the US presidency.
I don’t want Bloomberg as POTUS either — are you going to call everyone anti-semitic who doesn’t want a RINO like Bloomberg as the Republican nominee?
Maybe you should stick to issues and not try to smear anyone who disagrees with your candidate.
I’d not support of vote for him in the primaries, but I’d vaguely consider him in the general. Didn’t vote for McCain and consider myself more indie right than republican. I guess it’s the idea of having 4 more years of Obama that might make me vote r either way. We’ll see.
If you don’t see Mitten’s calumny, your eyes are closed. He spent a lot of time last election trying to label Reagan as pro abortion like he is, or oops was. His minions took up his cause slandering Reagan even here on this site.
Duncan Hunter, repeated asked Mittens to speak to people at the company he founded, Bain Capital, when they were trying to merge the Red Chinese with 3 Com. The Chinese wanted access to our protected technology that 3 Com possessed. Duncan Hunter wanted Mitt to talk to his people about preventing that. Mitt never responded. Mitt shows his concern for our country by raising five strapping boys without one of them joining the millitary. Then has no concern about the communists getting a hold of our protected technology via his old company. He’s certainly a business man without scruples.
You can go to Youtube where you can find plenty of his double speak, ask any conservative who lived in Massachusetts during the Romney years, and anyone associated with pro-life or pro-family causes about Mittens, they will tell you his backstabbing ways.
Add to this his patronage of gays by excluding the Boy Scouts from the Olympics he organized in Salt Lake City and his support of gay loving ENDA laws. Par for the course from the father of gay marriage in America.
He has a mistrust of the second amendment and a love of gun control laws.
He has predilection to lying as in “I saw my father marching with Martin Luther King.” When nothing of the sort ever happened. He didn’t even have to say it. So why lie? Romney lies when the truth would better serve him. Multiple faced lying is in his blood. He will say anything to anyone to get what he wants.
Lest we not forget the case against him which is most damning and most recent of all, Romneycare. Look at what Diogenesis has posted it will give you a true picture of this very unscrupulous man. Enough said.
You can keep your eyes wide shut as long as you like. But Romney gets no pass here from me.
Worth another 4 years of the demon?
What? I just said I found Bloomboig to be unacceptable. Maybe you all are right about Romeny. After all, he did make his dog ride on the roof of the car and he wears funny underpants, or so I’m told.
BWAAAA-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA......
Nah, winning the nomination...I didn’t think McCain had a chance in a million years because the base was against him and somehow he steamrolled through...magritte
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