I’ve been looking at the actual data...probably better to wait until the pros do it, but hey...
AL: 7th (Sewell) has to grow by almost 80K. Currently 6-1 Republican, closest one was the 2nd (Montgomery & Southeast). 7th could grow in that direction and shift the 3rd north.
AZ: Two hispanic districts here, 4th and 7th. 8th could be made more Democrat. The new district near metro Phoenix, R’s should have a good shot.
AR: 4th (Ross) has to add about 70K; probably can’t make it tilt R. Shifting it up into the current 1st makes it more Dem.
CA: The multipartisan commission could throw a lot of monkey wrenches in the system, but let’s see. Majority hispanic districts 18 (Cardoza D), 20 (Costa D), 21 (Nunes R), 28 (Berman D), 31 (Becerra D), 32 (Chu D), 34 (Roybal-Allard), 35 (Waters), 38 (Napolitano D), 39 (Sanchez D), 43 (Baca D), 47 (Sanchez D), 51 (Filner D).
Potential others: 17 (Farr D - Monterey),
23 (Capps D - its only chance of surviving is to become majority hispanic).
37 (Richardson D - LA County).
The two most populous districts are 44 (Calvert R, at 844K, 367K hispanic) and 45 (Bono-Mack R at 914K - 413K hispanic);
if they’re all concentrated in one part of the district, and they tend to vote Democrat, R’s could actually lose a seat out of this deal.
CO - 1st (Degette D) has to gain 56K, 7th (Perlmutter D) has to gain 40K. 2nd (Polis D) has to lose 15K, and 6th (Coffman R) has to lose 79K. The 7th is winnable.
FL: Majority black: 3rd (Brown) - has to add 37K population and 4K blacks, 17 (Wilson D), 23 (Hastings D)
Majority hispanic:
18 (Ros-Lehtinen R), 21 (Diaz-Balart R), and 25 (Rivera R).
The most populous districts are the 5th (Nugent R - north
of Tampa) and 14th (Mack R - Ft. Myers).
GA: Majority black: 4th (Johnson), 5th (Lewis), and 13th (Scott). 2nd (Bishop) is only 48%; could easily exchange territory with the 8th to get over 50% though.
Most populous is the 7th (Woodall R). The new district figures to be metro Atlanta, favoring R.
ID: 1st has to send 58K constituents to the 2nd.