Posted on 11/04/2010 7:57:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
I don't know if others find this as interesting as I do but let's see. On another thread there was some discussion about whether PA-12 (Critz, Murtha's successor) would be eliminated in 2012. If the estimates at census.gov are any good, let's suggest some mapping strategies for any number of states. I'm guessing there won't be enough interest to break this into state-by-state threads.
You can. You basically take Clyburn’s district and swallow every single African American area in the state.
Runs into VRA trouble though.
Florida has rules that require county continuity ‘wherever possible’. There is no commission though, the districts are still drawn by legislatures. The state probably goes R+1/D+1, and Allen West loses his district.
5-1-1 is great, and hopefully we’ll see something similar in NC, GA & AL on 2012.
By they way, I think if we had to have safe Left seats, these 3 bozo types are precisely good news for the GOP. Johnson is the same knucklehead who was worried about Guam capzizing because too many Marines were going to be stationed there, was he not?
IA loses a seat — roughly an even loss across the state.
R Gov; R House; D Senate.
I figure a Dem gets matched against an R. Latham of Ames vs. Boswell of Des Moines would be the two closest.
NJ loses a seat.
R Gov; D legislature. The 6th is very oddly shaped; a Smith (R,4th)-Pallone matchup is possible.
WA gains one. The population gains are in the west, but except for the 7th (McDermott-Seattle) none of the seats are particularly safe. Jaime Herrera did lose the Thurston (Olympia) portion of the 3rd; that might be the nugget of the new seat.
Mostly the latter.
That said, we can draw 3 Republican districts and 1 Democratic one.
The lefties get a seat in Dallas. There is really no way to avoid that since they grew like weeds there over the last decade.
Houston is easier. There’s already 3 Democratic seats there, so you throw all the new lefty population in those existing districts and carve out a new Republican district out of pieces of TX-22, TX-25, and TX-7.
A 3rd seat comes in south of Ft. Worth down to Killeen. Republican.
The last seat goes from San Antonio south. The best you can get this is about 53% McCain.
On top of that, you need to give Blake Farenholdt and Quiso Canseco better territory. I can get these guys to about 54% McCain but no better.
Every other Republican gets a seat that McCain got 60% or better in.
Peach = Eddie Johnson Light Green = new Rat seat Dark Green = Joe Barton Yellow = Jeb Hensarling Red = Ralph Hall Darker Orange = Pete Sessions Ligher Purple = Sam Johnson Darker Purple = Kenny Marchant Grey = Michael Burgess Blue = Kay Granger Ligher Orange = new Republican seat
New Jersey also uses a commission, lol.
Pallone is the Rat leader, and he won’t put himself in a contest. He also lives in heavy Republican Monmouth county and needs a ridiculous looking district.
The rats want to eliminate Jon Runyan or Scott Garrett but they really have no way of doing it. Most likely its Rush Holt vs Leonard Lance.
I haven’t been keeping up; have you folks in Texas got to the point where you don’t need any Dems to get to a quorum? Last I read about it you were one short.
I don’t think so, but its not a mid decade redistricting.
So USCB is behind the times (metro Dallas +2 rather than +1?). That was also their 2009 estimate. I saw Dick Morris predict +4 instead of +3 for Texas the other day.
Well, yes and no.
Ralph Hall (the red district) is only there because he needs to trade territory to Pete Sessions.
There’s really only about 1.5 districts worth of new people.
The overall result in texas is 23 safe seats that McCain won by 60% or more, 10 Dem seats, and 3 VRA seats that McCain won by 53-54% (TX-23, TX-27, TX-35).
Indiana - R’s control all 3 legs (not sure about a commission) -
IN 1 is safe D, IN 2 could become more R, IN 7 is safe D.
On the other side of the ledger, Dems have control in MD on all 3 legs - 2 R seats are the Western Panhandle and the Eastern Shore. There probably won’t be much change.
Indiana:
1 and 2 go east/west rather than North/South. Joe Donnelly loses.
Maryland: Rough situation.
The Western Panhandle is only 200-250k people. Plus, Roscoe Bartlett is 80+ years old.
The Democrats can probably 8-0 Maryland if they want to gamble a bit. More likely, they can 7-1 it. It is extremely easy to remove at least 1 of the 2 Republican seats we have, and not to difficult to get rid of both of them.
The GOP is going to probably have to take the city of Orlando and throw it into a 75% Rat district.
Grayson might make a comeback.
Right now we are overextended in Florida. Allen West for example is almost certain to lose next time.
‘Allen West for example is almost certain to lose next time.’
Not if they put Ocala in his district!
Ocala is about 300 miles away from his district. Florida districts are now required by law to be compact.
It’s probably not too hard to crack the 12th if we want to. It would require Jack Kingston and Paul Broun to take in some extra Dem votes, though. But I could see it being done.
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