Posted on 09/26/2010 3:47:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
McMahon has a chance in CT.
A “chance”.
Not bad for a Lefty, but let’s be honest:
PA is almost a certain lock for Toomey. We have pulled ahead in WV and NV.
We are within striking distance of NY, CA, DE (O’Donnell will come back here) and CT.
That is my 2 cents.
Looks like more Hope than sense from a dispirited Democrat.
He’s giving way too many losing Democrats the benefit of his bias.
There is no way Sestak is winning PA. Absolutely no way.
I also think Repubs will be victorious in NV and WV. There’s a chance we can grab CT and CA. I don’t think we will win WA or DE.
If COD keeps her cool, comes out with a hard-hitting ad campaign, and surrounds herself with hardened conservative pros who know how to work with others, she will win hanidly.
“Indiana - Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn’t getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don’t see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.”
Dan Coats is going to win and will probably win big over Ellsworth. I also suspect Representatives Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly may be looking for work after November.
Andre Carson, however, is probably going to keep his grandma’s old seat for at least another 2 years (One more reason why all my relatives in Indiana have moved out of Marion County.)
Delaware - Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. – I would actually make this one leans Republican. O’Donnell is down but really hasn’t had time to hit the airwaves yet and I believe she will pull it out.
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. – Call me naïve but I think this is a toss up at least and could soon turn lean Republican
Nevada - Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle – I see this one again in the toss up category with a lean Republican sense. Reid is too low in the polls and Angle will pull this one out.
Pennsylvania - Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey – Again, toss up but I don’t think Sestak can pull it out. He has too many negatives and Toomey will pull it out in the end.
Kentucky - Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway – I’d put this one in the likely Republican.
Alaska - Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams – Again likely not lean.
[Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out ]
If Reid hasn’t locked it up already as vicious as he has been, I don’t see how he does it.
Besides, my book on Harry Reid is sooo damning, we’ll see if he can survive it’s undercurrent. I have not been able to break through to the papers in the State, some because of liberal bias and some because I’ve had to run an underfunded guerilla campaign. But that could all change in a heartbeat. We’ll see. I am literally the wildcard.
Angle will beat Reid in the end, despite the "machine". Gillibrand is in a real pickle - she's been in that seat for months, and nobody knows her. And, I think the corruption allegations coming out about Manchin will hurt him badly - that looks like a race destined to go to recount. :)
Be seems to think all the Republicans are “weak” candidates, and the Democrats are mostly “strong” candidates. Even as he admits the polls don’t bear it out.
But thinking Sestak is going to win PA?
Delusional!
And even he admits, though, that his belief that Toomey is “too conservative for Pennsylvania” is just based on his own personal “Hope”.
But I think, unfortunately for Democrats like Mark Hanna, that Change is going to beat out Hope in this election.
I don’t “know” the New Englanders but I do know there are a lot of company headquarters in this state because of tax shelters. Maybe some of those “white collar” people will see “wrasklin’” as just another bidness.
Remember Eddie and wife are a machine in themselves. Also bear in mind that Philly has seen several elections over the last 20 or 30 years that had documented cases of voter turnout consistently being over 110% of the electorate! Expect nothing less this time.
Agree except for Toomey and Raese. Angle is too close to call.
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
Toomey has led in every single poll. I think Raese is gaining and that could be the biggest upset of the cycle. If the gain is 6 seats and they get up to 47 that will be a little disappointing but at least it will severely weaken the Dems’ power. It also puts Republicans in a good position to take back the majority in ‘12. They would have done it this year but after losing 15 seats in the last 2 elections it was just too difficult.
He says NH is trending blue?? It was but not anymore. Don’t know where he gets that idea when Ayotte is favored to win the Senate seat, Republicans could easily take both US House seats back, and Gov Lynch is in a tight race when they thought he would cruise to reelection. I think now that the Bush era is over and NH is seeing the reality of far left leadership from DC they might be returning to their small government roots.
I have them at plus 9. This guy’s 6 plus Toomey and Sestak plus 1 from Angle, McMahon or a true upset. I think the house will be an astonishing bloodbath-I have the GOP picking up over 60 and possibly 70
Wouldn't it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?
This is a good portion of how they play the game. Subterfuge, sow dissent, do a little astrotufing and accuse the other side. The Cloward-Pivens strategy being implemented with The One Community Organizer leading the way.
I generally agree. He’s off on the Toomey/Sestak race, because I think Toomey will pull that one out because Sestak is too far left, even for liberal Pennsylvania.
As for California, Fiorina gave Boxer a scare, but it’s looking like Boxer is gaining the upper hand there — this is, after all, California, which adores 0bama, despite the damage he’s done to their economy. Ditto for Murray in Washington.
I’m encouraged by developments in West Virginia and Wisconsin, though. Manchin and Feingold are getting a strong challenge in places the dems hadn’t planned.
As for Delaware, I really like the policy statements of Christine O’Donnell and have donated to her campaign, but she’s a conservative fighting almost a 90-degree uphill battle against a hard-core liberal. Yes, Coons has admitted to being a marxist, but there needs to be something more to pin on him, because apparently lefty little Delaware is OK with a marxist Senator. At the same time, I realize her nomination was more a statement about kicking RINOs out of the GOP than a competitive bid for the Senate. Hopefully, the GOP has gotten the message that the conservative wing is serious, even at the cost a Senate seat.
My prediction: a net gain of 6 seats for the GOP (IF Rand Paul survives). It’s well short of the majority, and shy of the “tsunami” so many have expected, but enough to put a serious dent in 0bama’s agenda.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.