Palin, Huckabee Top Choice for U.S. Republicans

The Angus Reid Global Monitor ^ | August 6, 2010

[The Pack Knight]

There were some potentially formidable candidates who weren’t even mentioned in the poll, such as Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour.

The polls so far seem to presume that the field is going to be limited to 2008 retreads like Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, but what you pointed out shows that they’ll have some serious disadvantages when they go up against candidates without built-in negatives.

[The Pack Knight]

Without Sarah Palin running, we would again have 2008 redux, many moderates with conservatives having to decide which moderate “flavor” to support. But with Palin running in 2012, conservatives have no excuse in 2012 with a Reagan conservative being very viable. If you are a conservative, by virtue of the this poll you have a Hobson choice, either vote for Palin or stop complaining that the MSM picks the GOP candidates who is most RINOish. And if you are a conservative there is no second choice or conservative dark horse that is going to emerge. If there was, why did none appear in 2008? For conservatives it has to be Palin.

I'm not sure how you get all that out of the poll. There were several potential candidates who weren't even mentioned in the poll.

All this shows is that the 2008 candidates, unsurprisingly, have greater name recognition. That is hardly an insurmountable advantage 18 months before the Iowa caucus. It also shows that several of the 2008 names, Palin included, have serious disadvantages in the number of Republicans who already have a negative opinion of them.

As for why no "conservative dark horse" appeared in 2008, that may be due to the fact that any Republican was going to have a hard time winning after 8 years of Bush. Rightly or wrongly, the Republican "brand" was radioactive, and a lot of potential candidates might have seen the writing on the wall after the 2006 debacle.

Also, a number of potential candidates will have more governing experience under their belts and more credibility in 2012 than they had in 2008. That's one thing that can't be said for Huckabee, Romney, or Palin.